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Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion


TalcottWx
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Oh, okay - the GGEM at 84 hours looks interesting and suggestive, but it appears to blow its load in the SE with that southern mid level wind max and that runs out the B-clinic instability and strands the deeper trough from being able to do much.  Yeah...'nother zample of too much fast flow.   

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

GFS does look like a potentially good setup for severe in the south around 180-hours! No strong EML signals but some EML air may make the ride from Mexico 

Dude...come on. Go tickle yourself in all the right places in your May 1st countdown. Nobody cares about a lightning strike in Mobile when we are scratching and clawing for a few inches of snow during peak winter climo.

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4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This is kind of a bad time to be heading in the wrong direction IMO... lots of spread still obviously.... but trend isn’t your friend.

Discouraging start to 12z here 

Speed/progressive flow has always been a big issue with this one. It's why I was skeptical of the hugger solutions yesterday.

But this still has room to be a good storm...GFS trended poorly, but GEM got better...they are similar skill.

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9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This is kind of a bad time to be heading in the wrong direction IMO... lots of spread still obviously.... but trend isn’t your friend.

Discouraging start to 12z here 

I’m sure the gefs will follow suit going SE but you guys are in the realm of a slight nw shift for impact. West folks, AIT for days, will have a much harder time pulling this closer. 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Where are the tissues

more like towels 

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Dude...come on. Go tickle yourself in all the right places in your May 1st countdown. Nobody cares about a lightning strike in Mobile when we are scratching and clawing for a few inches of snow during peak winter climo.

Funny thing is...unlike all these fake snow threats everyone drools over the severe wx threat will likely verify. 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

more like towels 

Funny thing is...unlike all these fake snow threats everyone drools over the severe wx threat will likely verify. 

OK then go into the southeast forum and discuss it there with them. We live in NewEng. If there was a severe chance this weekend HERE, then fine. 

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