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Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion


TalcottWx
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21 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I'm curious what the model showed 8 days prior. Just curious with what we're seeing now with this storm for next weekend if there are any similarities to the track and structure of the this storm and the one from 2015 storm?

All I know is all we heard was thread the needle,  no blocking,fast mover la di da di da. Until it wasn't 

 

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Man those memories of that storm create so much nostalgia. That’s the winter you dream about and wish for when you’re in 5th grade. I’ll never forget the 3/28 event. That should have been rain or non accumulating snow. The effing temp dropped, the slush on the trees froze in midday mind you, and we had like 3”. That’s when I sat back and just realized what the **** we went through. 

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25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

All I know is all we heard was thread the needle,  no blocking,fast mover la di da di da. Until it wasn't 

I don't have the time to see what I said, but it's possible that the first was true while the rest was also true. Snow lasted about 16 hours at BOS, that's not really a "long" event if you think about 6-10 hours of WAA plus a few hours of deformation on the backside.

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That’s decent ensemble support for d8.   What I remember was some models going with a DC blizzard and SNE whiff and scooter melting more.  Saturday morning I woke up and poked at the overnight euro and we had a blizzard progged for SNE.  Other models came on board over the next 24 hours.   And then we had a month of incredible fun!

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5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That’s decent ensemble support for d8.   What I remember was some models going with a DC blizzard and SNE whiff and scooter melting more.  Saturday morning I woke up and poked at the overnight euro and we had a blizzard progged for SNE.  Other models came on board over the next 24 hours.   And then we had a month of incredible fun!

And we will never forget...how the euro choked for the west up until go time. 

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And we will never forget...how the euro choked for the west up until go time. 

I know what you went through but I’m sorry...missing the qpf by 20 miles is not much of a choke.  You were always too close to the edge for comfort.   But I feel your pain.

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And we will never forget...how the euro choked for the west up until go time. 

That was a good storm to illustrate where going with the outlier is very risky. I remember NWS OKX was buying the euro. 

Ill be interested to see what I said in the thread that ginxy linked but I remember being somewhat skeptical of the euro by the time we were inside 36 hours. RGEM actually really did well on that storm IIRC. Showed the real strong deformation/fronto band from 495 to ORH to Eastern CT where is exactly where it ended up. It had a good winter overall. 

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2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I know what you went through but I’m sorry...missing the qpf by 20 miles is not much of a choke.  You were always too close to the edge for comfort.   But I feel your pain.

Yeah it was the western outlier but still only about a 30-40 mile miss? It just happened to occur over probably the most densely populated 400 square mile area in the country that receives winter wx so it seemed a lot worse than it was from an empirical standpoint. 

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12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That’s decent ensemble support for d8.   What I remember was some models going with a DC blizzard and SNE whiff and scooter melting more.  Saturday morning I woke up and poked at the overnight euro and we had a blizzard progged for SNE.  Other models came on board over the next 24 hours.   And then we had a month of incredible fun!

Ryan didn't like it from jump, Scooter was worried about LP north of Quebec, Kevin had it OTS. Messenger and I were gung ho and took a beating for insisting that dynamics would be crazy.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was a good storm to illustrate where going with the outlier is very risky. I remember NWS OKX was buying the euro. 

Ill be interested to see what I said in the thread that ginxy linked but I remember being somewhat skeptical of the euro by the time we were inside 36 hours. RGEM actually really did well on that storm IIRC. Showed the real strong deformation/fronto band from 495 to ORH to Eastern CT where is exactly where it ended up. It had a good winter overall. 

Yeah the bigger issue was not only buying the Euro whole cloth, but running with 36" forecasts. When that shifted out of the city and onto LI that's a lot of bad press.

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18 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I don't have the time to see what I said, but it's possible that the first was true while the rest was also true. Snow lasted about 16 hours at BOS, that's not really a "long" event if you think about 6-10 hours of WAA plus a few hours of deformation on the backside.

Thread the needle is the most overused term here. All storms in SNE are thread the needle 

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1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Oh it was much more that 20-40 miles lol forecasts were for 2-3’ west of NYC. It was more like 75-100 miles on the western edge. 

Well they had close to 2 feet on central/eastern Long Island IIRC. How far is that from northeast NJ? 

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Thread the needle is the most overused term here. All storms in SNE are thread the needle 

Not really. As long as people know what it means. The term is relative...Storms like 1/12/11 would’ve hit us like 10 different ways....maybe for places like the cape it was more precarious but that block was forcing that sucker underneath us with varying intensities and orientation of the shortwave. 

Other storms are literally like an unmanned firehose and you see a lot more variation and sensitivity to the model initialization. That’s really the key...how sensitive is the solution to small changes in the initial conditions? 

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well they had close to 2 feet on central/eastern Long Island IIRC. How far is that from northeast NJ? 

@The 4 Seasons measured it out he has all the forecasts and totals saved. He says 90-100 mile error for 18”+. Orange County was forecast for 27-33” they got 1-3”. Our area was in the heart of the 27-33” forecast zone and ended up with 6-10”.  For the 12”+ forecast, the error was around 135 miles. 

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

I don't know, it was the first storm of an evolving favorable pattern. It didn't have the same odds stacked in its favor as that February did.

Thread the needle would imply it had only one shot are working out.  That storm was huge in expanse not some little nuke. IDK but it sure was everything you could want in a blizzard 

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was a good storm to illustrate where going with the outlier is very risky. I remember NWS OKX was buying the euro. 

Ill be interested to see what I said in the thread that ginxy linked but I remember being somewhat skeptical of the euro by the time we were inside 36 hours. RGEM actually really did well on that storm IIRC. Showed the real strong deformation/fronto band from 495 to ORH to Eastern CT where is exactly where it ended up. It had a good winter overall. 

They went all euro with 24-36 from WNJ to  points NE even when the snow began falling. I remember hoping euro and nam would win out or at least be 70% correct because that would practically still get everyone on sne but it ended more towards the eastern solutions...like 60/40 east modes. 

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The 00z and 12z GFS runs were about as different as possible with timing and dynamics.  The 00z was a full on raining event for most in SNE, while the 12z GFS was a full on blizzard once the temps crashed to the coast with a 952mb low east of ACK, but still missed by 50+ miles from a tremendous event, even though I got over 3-4" of QPF from that track.  It was the perfect track for me to receive 4 feet of snow, but cold air initially was lacking as we don't have a classic Quebec High.

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