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Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion

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OT but anybody know how much snow KNYC, KPHL, KBAL, KDCA and KIAD have this season?

I know it's lower than BOS and of course ORH but just curious bad a winter it's been for them.

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5 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

OT but anybody know how much snow KNYC, KPHL, KBAL, KDCA and KIAD have this season?

I know it's lower than BOS and of course ORH but just curious bad a winter it's been for them.

I'm at 3.3 in southern NYC.  I think Central Park has 4.8 inches. 

Philly and D.C dont even have an inch. 

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1 hour ago, Hoth said:

Yes, I'm sure the picnic tables will get by. 

Yeah I like SWFE chances even if they aren’t big dogs...they are usually moderate events but widespread.  But I don’t get all jacked up on a late blooming Miller B pattern like some of ya’ll.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Factoring in the GFS 2-meter abysmal warm bias in saturation environments, that 18z run is two day ice storm ending as 3-5" of snow on top.

Also, that's an amazing 13 days worth of pancake wave mix/snow events ... Two days cyclic -

Know what would be interesting ?   Do a day 7 snow total for the season, and compare it to the actual snow totals at the end.  I wonder if the D7 is like triple what actually happens or something -

At least 5x for some.

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

At least 5x for some.

I think it would depend on the run... do you only take 1 run and 7 day totals or do you do a running blend with 4 runs per day?  

I do think the ensemble snow maps are pretty solid on the whole for 7-day chunks...but they don’t have those wild swings of the Ops and are essentially an ensemble QPF map.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I like SWFE chances even if they aren’t big dogs...they are usually moderate events but widespread.  But I don’t get all jacked up on a late blooming Miller B pattern like some of ya’ll.

Of course you don't lol. Overrunning events usually delivery the bigger goods to you than a bombing coastal on the BM where more times than not you're on the NW'ern fringe of the meaningful QPF. Although you usually do clean up with the upslope stuff after the storms roll through ;)

You will always do better in crappy patterns and good patterns in your location, save for 09'-10' of course

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Just now, powderfreak said:

I think it would depend on the run... do you only take 1 run and 7 day totals or do you do a running blend with 4 runs per day?  

I do think the ensemble snow maps are pretty solid on the whole for 7-day chunks...but they don’t have those wild swings of the Ops and are essentially an ensemble QPF map.

He was referring to the gfs, I think, so if we took the average of the 4x day 7 op runs and compare to actual snowfall...it would easily illustrate why we call them clown maps. If we took the cmc, probably worse lol.

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1 hour ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

His chances are not our chances. Moose Fart for the win.

His chances are my chances, And we will gift wrap the moose patties and send them south.........;)

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1 hour ago, BombsAway1288 said:

OT but anybody know how much snow KNYC, KPHL, KBAL, KDCA and KIAD have this season?

I know it's lower than BOS and of course ORH but just curious bad a winter it's been for them.

DC has .06 As bad as we have it and are skunked the rest of the way.. that is futility 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Factoring in the GFS 2-meter abysmal warm bias in saturation environments, that 18z run is two day ice storm ending as 3-5" of snow on top.

Also, that's an amazing 13 days worth of pancake wave mix/snow events ... Two days cyclic -

Know what would be interesting ?   Do a day 7 snow total for the season, and compare it to the actual snow totals at the end.  I wonder if the D7 is like triple what actually happens or something -

You’ve got to stop with ice storm fetish posts . 

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Yeah I’d punt winter right now if I could, but the next 10 or so days have a messy look to them up here. 

Wish we lived there. Ginx calling for all misery mist CT. Don’t want to live here for his forecast 

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15 minutes ago, dryslot said:

His chances are my chances, And we will gift wrap the moose patties and send them south.........;)

It would be interesting to run the covariance of your snowfall with a place like ORH or where powderfreak is....I'd bet your covariance with ORH is higher because you get hit by most of the coastal that hit interior SNE plus all the SWFEs that we share....there's obviously some strict latitude events that only give snow to, say RUT-CON-PWM northward, but I'd bet they are fewer in number and magnitude than the former ones listed.

 

That said, you may have one of those middle of next week.

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Am I honestly the only one that feels strongly that SNE is done with any more meaningful snowfalls? When you fall into a seasonal pattern this late it’s hard to reverse. There’s got to be a few people who are doubting much snowfall is left . Or maybe it really is just me.

 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It would be interesting to run the covariance of your snowfall with a place like ORH or where powderfreak is....I'd bet your covariance with ORH is higher because you get hit by most of the coastal that hit interior SNE plus all the SWFEs that we share....there's obviously some strict latitude events that only give snow to, say RUT-CON-PWM northward, but I'd bet they are fewer in number and magnitude than the former ones listed.

 

That said, you may have one of those middle of next week.

I would think we are similar to interior SNE, Not sure about PF's area because he always has the upslope component which we don't have, I think ORH and here share the same seasonal snowfall number, Were at 70", Next week looks quite interesting actually could end up a long duration over a few days if some of these waves that ride the boundary develop and we remain on the northern side.

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42 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Of course you don't lol. Overrunning events usually delivery the bigger goods to you than a bombing coastal on the BM where more times than not you're on the NW'ern fringe of the meaningful QPF. Although you usually do clean up with the upslope stuff after the storms roll through ;)

You will always do better in crappy patterns and good patterns in your location, save for 09'-10' of course

What is bolded there is definitely true.  I don't agree with the good pattern stuff because I think what most of New England thinks as a good pattern will redeem higher results in the lower average snowfall areas.  Our snowfall can be more steady in all patterns, IMO.  Of course we have our times when all of New England is raking and we rake really high too, but it's all relative to average in my mind.  Average sets expectations.

In a below normal satisfaction winter, we'll certainly seem to do much better.  Crappy winters are usually warmer or more cutter-ish, but even at +7 this month, our average highs were below freezing. Warmer winters also have the baroclinic zone closer to us, more activity, etc.  It's been a below average winter up here, but we've had a winter with consistent snow cover and some snowy weeks.

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It would be interesting to run the covariance of your snowfall with a place like ORH or where powderfreak is....I'd bet your covariance with ORH is higher because you get hit by most of the coastal that hit interior SNE plus all the SWFEs that we share....there's obviously some strict latitude events that only give snow to, say RUT-CON-PWM northward, but I'd bet they are fewer in number and magnitude than the former ones listed.

That said, you may have one of those middle of next week.

Agreed.  I bet it's closer to ORH than BTV area for climo, IMO.  He's NNE latitude but in that SW to NE coastal swath. 

I mean, it's similar to here too in that we get mountain snowfall, just further north than the mountains further south.  On the basic level, snowfall increases as you head north in latitude in the northeast.  Similar climate but further north, you're going to do a bit better with a longer length of snow season on average. 

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sne will see more snowfall this winter...another 10-25" for most seems reasonable. Hope so because my snowfall forecast is going down in flames w/out

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56 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Am I honestly the only one that feels strongly that SNE is done with any more meaningful snowfalls? When you fall into a seasonal pattern this late it’s hard to reverse. There’s got to be a few people who are doubting much snowfall is left . Or maybe it really is just me.

 

I get your frustration completely.  And it’s Easy to just throw up your hands and give in to futility.  But when you think about things a little more rationally, Feb hasn’t even started yet..and it feels a lot later than it really is-cuz we’ve had so little snow since winter started.  But there really is a whole second half of winter yet to get through...so to say there will be no more Accumulating snow is rather silly and foolish when one lives in SNE,  on January 30th.  
 

But Where we’ve been, and where we are currently, it sure seems like we could go the next 6 weeks without anymore accumulating snow..so I get your frustration completely.  Cuz I’m feeling it too.  But I do think we’ll see something pop for us at some point in this second half. 
 

 

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Winter scene through the lens today... below normal snow winter, but certainly could be worse.  Made up some ground recently.

Hopefully everyone can get some snow accums in the next 7-10 days of short waves.

2L8A3416_edited-1-1.thumb.jpg.a71d1602ab9b4451938698c6de477a5b.jpg

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wish we lived there. Ginx calling for all misery mist CT. Don’t want to live here for his forecast 

Lol can't discuss a model output without it being a forecast. North trend?

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6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I’m about 18-20” from average seasonal totals and feel like that is quite doable with a solid 8 weeks of winter ahead. 

I don’t know about a solid 8 wks...that might be a LIL bit of a stretch?  But a solid 6 weeks for sure. 

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

I don’t know about a solid 8 wks...that might be a LIL bit of a stretch?  But a solid 6 weeks for sure. 

Through the end of March is definitely valid at his latitude. Even down here in the valley, March or April was the snowiest month in four of the last seven winters. It's always possible we shut it down for good in short order, but if you could only reference climo, it wouldn't be a stretch at all to allow for at least 8 more weeks in the interior.

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20 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Through the end of March is definitely valid at his latitude. Even down here in the valley, March or April was the snowiest month in four of the last seven winters. It's always possible we shut it down for good in short order, but if you could only reference climo, it wouldn't be a stretch at all to allow for at least 8 more weeks in the interior.

#marchiswinter

 

 

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On 1/30/2020 at 8:37 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

DC has .06 As bad as we have it and are skunked the rest of the way.. that is futility 

Imagine being a guy like me (who loves snow every bit as much as you all) and mentally dealing with .03” in Philly to date...

I'm a lucky one though (living 35 miles nw of Philly) with 3” on the year! 

Great stuff for sure!

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