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Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion

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19 minutes ago, RDRY said:

if you wanna laugh look at what the JMA does between 120 and 144 on TT.  blows up and retrogades

Look at the NAVGEM too. Crappy models ftw!

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22 minutes ago, RDRY said:

if you wanna laugh look at what the JMA does between 120 and 144 on TT.  blows up and retrogades

Sorry for the triple post , phone froze 

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Just now, apm said:

And more to the East...

14-km EPS Global Cyclones undefined undefined 138.png

Only thing you could maybe get from that is there are a lot of strong members there minus the ones that escape OTS completely.  If this tucks or goes near the BM then it should be a high impact storm (rain or snow)

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Given the set up, I think this is a good look this far out. You guys who are hoping for a burial six days out in this set up, Are going to wind up saying congrats Syracuse.

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That's a pretty reasonable EPS look at this point...I think it tells us a lot in terms of the probabilities right now. You're prob looking at 40% odds or so of something close enough for eastern areas and less than that for western areas.

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11 minutes ago, apm said:

And more to the East...

14-km EPS Global Cyclones undefined undefined 138.png

I will take anyone of those 968/970 lows just south of eastern Long Island please....

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6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea, east is best here. I’d hedge late phase given the flow and abundance of sw’s.

Saturday we will all be watching satellite loops, having early phase hallucinations, thinking the ots forecast is wrong....only to have the models in the end being correct even though it was soooo close...

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I'm actually pretty pumped not to see any major storm signals in the long-range...seems like we do well when something pops up around the D5-6 timeframe instead of 240-hours out. But at the rate we're going...pretty soon the D11-15 period will be looking for 70's and 80's!!!

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2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Saturday we will all be watching satellite loops, having early phase hallucinations, thinking the ots forecast is wrong....only to have the models in the end being correct even though it was soooo close...

Yea. It will back in enough to give us an inch or two while sema folks tickle each other to a foot plus. 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

River East for heaviest maybe?

Could be 395 too....or 495. Or 95.

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16 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Lot of lean way east and se there... almost feel like that’s the majority.

However, the ones that do come pretty close are whoppers 

The trend on the EPS since yesterday has been modestly east and much weaker. There were also of 940s alot of 950s yesterday, which are all like 965-970 now.

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Could be anything.  Could be a complete Miss. Could be a weak POS with all these shortwaves all over and nothing congeals?  Could be, Could be. Could be?   I love how the East crowd automatically think it's gonna be east for easterners.  If this Phases strong and Earlier...it'll be at the BM or a tad west of that I bet and a powerhouse.   Obviously if it phases late then its off to the east, or a complete miss too.  With all those S/W's in the flow...this has eons to go before we know anything of significance.

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The trend on the EPS since yesterday has been modestly east and much weaker. There were also of 940s alot of 950s yesterday, which are all like 965-970 now.

Well to be fair...those 940's and 950's were not believable at all imo...and a 965 or 970 mb low is no weak storm by any stretch either...and much more realistic.

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Could be anything.  Could be a complete Miss. Could be a weak POS with all these shortwaves all over and nothing congeals?  Could be, Could be. Could be?   I love how the East crowd automatically think it's gonna be east for easterners.  If this Phases strong and Earlier...it'll be at the BM or a tad west of that I bet and a powerhouse.   Obviously if it phases late then its off to the east, or a complete miss too.  With all those S/W's in the flow...this has eons to go before we know anything of significance.

A storm near the BM or a tad west would still favor eastern and central areas. You need it tucked under LI to favor west.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

A storm near the BM or a tad west would still favor eastern and central areas. You need it tucked under LI to favor west.

A tad west of the BM works perfectly for my locale, and Bergs as well....far Western CT and Mass then under LI is better for them.  I was speaking for my area is what I meant. 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well to be fair...those 940's and 950's were not believable at all imo...and a 965 or 970 mb low is no weak storm by any stretch either...and much more realistic.

Its rare, but not unheard of..January 2018 was like 954mb. Anyway, just objectivity noting the trend.

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