Spanks45 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: My guess is it’s going to be tough to make up the difference.... the look still isn’t really a good one for SNE... and you see how little we’ve been able to do so far this year My expectations are pretty low. I hate seeing all of that cold air up north and having that sinking feeling that we end up with cold rains during peak snow climo. Lets end this and just start spring already. Then again, I would be ok with a 2 week run to make up those deficits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm at 18.3" and a good chance this season will be lower than 15-16 here. I cracked over 40" in that one. But who knows, a couple of good events and we're right back in it. I am actually ahead of last year by 2 inches which is my lowest seasonal snowfall at 35 inches. I had 38ish inches in 2015/16 thanks to the blizzard. Three out of the last four years have not been very good.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Just now, Spanks45 said: I am actually ahead of last year by 2 inches which is my lowest seasonal snowfall at 35 inches. I had 38ish inches in 2015/16 thanks to the blizzard. Three out of the last four years have not been very good.... What were your totals? Last year was near or a hair above normal for snow here. Previous winters were pretty good. 16-17 came in chunks, but a good snow season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You clearly need medication based on your Aaron Hernandez like behavior. How can you optimistic about the next few weeks in SNE? It looks rainy overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: How can you optimistic about the next few weeks in SNE? It looks rainy overall It will probably be a yo-yo. Forget the pack and hope and appreciate any white stuff that falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: How can you optimistic about the next few weeks in SNE? It looks rainy overall The reverse psychology hasn't been working. If it was me, I'd go back to weenieing the cold press over the next couple weeks. A little more confluence up there or a slight shift in the heights could get the gradient more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What were your totals? Last year was near or a hair above normal for snow here. Previous winters were pretty good. 16-17 came in chunks, but a good snow season. I moved up here December of 2014....2014/15 - 59" 2015/16 - 38" 2016/17 - 58.6" 2017/18 - 72" 2018/19 - 35" 2019/20 - 14.3" so far I somehow forgot about the 2016/17 season, so I guess it hasn't been that terrible. Especially moving up from central Delaware (lived there for 8+ years) where I averaged 15 inches per season.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: The reverse psychology hasn't been working. If it was me, I'd go back to weenieing the cold press over the next couple weeks. A little more confluence up there or a slight shift in the heights could get the gradient more south. Honestly, it's a fascinating display of psychology. One could do a thesis on the weenie mind's inner workings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: The reverse psychology hasn't been working. If it was me, I'd go back to weenieing the cold press over the next couple weeks. A little more confluence up there or a slight shift in the heights could get the gradient more south. Why would we have any hope or optimism of that? Everything that can go wrong has. No reason to have false hope. Hope for nothing and prepare for worse 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: I moved up here December of 2014....2014/15 - 59" 2015/16 - 38" 2016/17 - 58.6" 2017/18 - 72" 2018/19 - 35" 2019/20 - 14.3" so far I somehow forgot about the 2016/17 season, so I guess it hasn't been that terrible. Especially moving up from central Delaware (lived there for 8+ years) where I averaged 15 inches per season.. Well like Luke in Southbury says...the western areas (CT especially) have been a little behind from even the eastern part of the state. That's surprisingly not a huge variance there...albeit small sample size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Scott would you say this potential over running sets up a higher chance for a ice storm or two in Nashua 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 20 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: I am actually ahead of last year by 2 inches which is my lowest seasonal snowfall at 35 inches. I had 38ish inches in 2015/16 thanks to the blizzard. Three out of the last four years have not been very good.... 15/16 was average. 16/17 and 17/18 were above average. Last year was below average and this year a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why would we have any hope or optimism of that? Everything that can go wrong has. No reason to have false hope. Hope for nothing and prepare for worse The only thing I would say on the optimistic side is that during the past month the long-range bottles kept showing that we were going to get cold blast and the pattern was changed to more snow. That didn't materialize. Now the models are showing it much warmer and not very snowy, the opposite can happen where it will get more snowy. Yes I'm hoping, but, so far the opposite happened in the long range, so, that means the opposite will happen with the new long-range LOL. Hope that makes some sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Scott would you say this potential over running sets up a higher chance for a ice storm or two in Nashua Sure why not. This is what you want to see. Of course you realize how difficult it is to get a high end ZR event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well like Luke in Southbury says...the western areas (CT especially) have been a little behind from even the eastern part of the state. That's surprisingly not a huge variance there...albeit small sample size. Last year was the only below average winter for SW CT since 2011/2012 and only the 5th this century. Helps that the average range is only 30 to 35. This winter will most likely be the 6th. So SW CT really had it good. Only complaint would be 7 inches received in Juno while you guys raked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Last year was the only below average winter for SW CT since 2011/2012 and only the 5th this century. Helps that the average range is only 30 to 35. This winter will most likely be the 6th. So SW CT really had it good. Only complaint would be 7 inches received in Juno while you guys raked. I can't complain given the run we have had overall. It's very rare to go through this long a period without a real ratter. Really since 11-12 as far as snow goes. 15-16 overall sucked when including temps, but we still managed a double digit storm. Have yet to do that this year. This Jan will be my lowest snow I can recall. I'll need to look back, but I think even Jan 2012 had a bit more snow where I was in Dorchester. I know it was more at my current location. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 11 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Am I honestly the only one that feels strongly that SNE is done with any more meaningful snowfalls? When you fall into a seasonal pattern this late it’s hard to reverse. There’s got to be a few people who are doubting much snowfall is left . Or maybe it really is just me. Im on the fence. There most likely will be snow between now and the end of March. However, I’m all set with enduring another gradient pattern where we seem to have been on the wrong side of it this winter. At this point Sloppy SWFE’s aren’t all that exciting. Keep the 3-5” inches of crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Tuesday/Wednesday will be too far north for most of us....but late week is interesting. Could be an ice setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well like Luke in Southbury says...the western areas (CT especially) have been a little behind from even the eastern part of the state. That's surprisingly not a huge variance there...albeit small sample size. It’s been a couple big events favoring the east that skews the numbers. I have faith we’ll eventually (maybe not this season) cash on on some bigger ones to even it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 13 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Im on the fence. There most likely will be snow between now and the end of March. However, I’m all set with enduring another gradient pattern where we seem to have been on the wrong side of it this winter. At this point Sloppy SWFE’s aren’t all that exciting. Keep the 3-5” inches of crap. I’ll settle for anything if it can stay around for a few days but I’m reaching the ‘go big or bring spring’ mode as we approach V Day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Tuesday/Wednesday will be too far north for most of us....but late week is interesting. Could be an ice setup. Are you very familiar with the Trans-Nino Index? There is something about interpreting it that I am confused with. Per my understanding, the TNI is a measure of SST gradient between the eastern portion of the equatorial Tropical Pacific (Nino Region 1.2) and central portion of the equatorial Tropical Pacific (Nino region 4). When the TNI is positive that indicates the SST's are colder than average in the central portion of the tropical Pacific and warmer than average east of that (though not sure how that can be the case during an EL Nino event). anyways...to try and further understand this concept I just looked at some weak EL Nino winter's and took the average of the DJF TNI values...and plotted SSTA's for a few of the positive TNI's and negative TNI's: My take from this (at least for weak EL Nino events) is a negative TNI during a weak EL nino indicates warmest anomalies closer to the dateline whereas a positive TNI has the warmest anomalies off the coast of South America M<y point from all of this really is to dig more into looking at ENSO events beyond just strength but whether they're east/west/central based...though how the evolution transpires is probably even more important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 41 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Im on the fence. There most likely will be snow between now and the end of March. However, I’m all set with enduring another gradient pattern where we seem to have been on the wrong side of it this winter. At this point Sloppy SWFE’s aren’t all that exciting. Keep the 3-5” inches of crap. A 3-5 inch storm is much better than no snow at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 28 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Are you very familiar with the Trans-Nino Index? There is something about interpreting it that I am confused with. Per my understanding, the TNI is a measure of SST gradient between the eastern portion of the equatorial Tropical Pacific (Nino Region 1.2) and central portion of the equatorial Tropical Pacific (Nino region 4). When the TNI is positive that indicates the SST's are colder than average in the central portion of the tropical Pacific and warmer than average east of that (though not sure how that can be the case during an EL Nino event). anyways...to try and further understand this concept I just looked at some weak EL Nino winter's and took the average of the DJF TNI values...and plotted SSTA's for a few of the positive TNI's and negative TNI's: My take from this (at least for weak EL Nino events) is a negative TNI during a weak EL nino indicates warmest anomalies closer to the dateline whereas a positive TNI has the warmest anomalies off the coast of South America M<y point from all of this really is to dig more into looking at ENSO events beyond just strength but whether they're east/west/central based...though how the evolution transpires is probably even more important. I'm thinking more and more analogs are becoming useless with a warming world. The oceans are warm all over. Our typical analogs likely don't mean the same like they did years ago. The strong ENSO events still have a say, but when the oceans are warm all over...I think the indices mean less and less. JMHO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 31, 2020 Author Share Posted January 31, 2020 I love ice setups, I can log off the board and know rain is coming. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm thinking more and more analogs are becoming useless with a warming world. The oceans are warm all over. Our typical analogs likely don't mean the same like they did years ago. The strong ENSO events still have a say, but when the oceans are warm all over...I think the indices mean less and less. JMHO. How dare you link climate change to the weather! Actually, this makes a lot of sense. I think things are changing fairly rapidly and the next few decades are going to be interesting as we watch all this unfold, perhaps in ways we don't quite understand. How soon will we have enough data to have new analogues? In other words if we start to look at conditions post-2000, would that be a better baseline, even though a very small data set? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 6 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: I love ice setups, I can log off the board and know rain is coming. Yeah I'd expect nothing there....check back in a few days to see if it has changed. The late week setup could be snowier too....but no sense in getting hopes up 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm thinking more and more analogs are becoming useless with a warming world. The oceans are warm all over. Our typical analogs likely don't mean the same like they did years ago. The strong ENSO events still have a say, but when the oceans are warm all over...I think the indices mean less and less. JMHO. I actually totally and completely agree with this. Its like the data set and correlations have to start all over again...from more recent times. This is also why I don't like how many of these reanalysis sites (for example the monthly composite page from the ESRL) only has the most recent climo period...how can you really compare something from like 1924 to the base period of 1981-2010? The entire climate background state is completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: I actually totally and completely agree with this. Its like the data set and correlations have to start all over again...from more recent times. This is also why I don't like how many of these reanalysis sites (for example the monthly composite page from the ESRL) only has the most recent climo period...how can you really compare something from like 1924 to the base period of 1981-2010? The entire climate background state is completely different. Exactly, it's why so many forecasts for the winter fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Just now, Great Snow 1717 said: Exactly, it's why so many forecasts for the winter fail. LR forecasting is more accurate than it was 1-2 decades ago....but it's still very difficult. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Exactly, it's why so many forecasts for the winter fail. I think overall long-range forecasts are decent...heck even good. There are some out there who are phenomenal and just have an understanding of the atmosphere like nobody else (Anthony Maisello for example). but part of the issue I think is some try to incorporate too much detail into seasonal outlooks...one of them being forecast snowfall totals. I think this not only vastly reduces accuracy of some seasonal outlooks but sort of takes away from the outlook itself and the work that goes into it. Forecasting snowfall...and precipitation for that matter is exceptionally difficult in the long-range. You can perhaps wager possibilities given what you expect the pattern to be but there is no guarantees the patterns produce. IMO, precipitation is more correlated to "blips" in the pattern than the actual pattern itself. Another one is temperatures...some try to use a range...like Feb will be +2 to +4. I think it would be better to just be as simple as below-average, around average, or above-average...and then spicing that up however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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