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Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion


TalcottWx
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44 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

No one wants below normal with a gradient pattern for DC/Philly ;).  

Keep the heating bills in check and drape frontal boundaries nearby for lots of overrunning.

With latitude, BN temps aren't needed.

2/5/2001   25    8  (+1.4)    0.58"    7.0"
2/6/2001   30   23 (+11.5)  0.81"  10.0"

2/10/2005   32   21 (+10.7)  1.34"  15.0" (w/thunder)
2/11/2005   23   16  (+3.6)   0.36     6.0"

or next month:
3/8/2018   30   23  (+2.4)  1.90"  19.6"

May not (likely won't) get anything like the above, but milder than average isn't doom, at least not until after the equinox.

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The overrunning threat for mid to late next week should be much easier for the medium range models to handle compared to this weekend's fiasco since we're not trying to deal with the interaction between multiple shortwaves. Obviously details such as front placement and precip type are TBD, but my confidence for a long duration significant QPF event in the 6-9 day range is quite high and I think someone (most likely NNE right now) cashes in. 

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21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

We are going to have our chances.  GFS and Euro offered some decent hope for the next 7-10 days with a variety of overrunning events.  

Yeah I’d punt winter right now if I could, but the next 10 or so days have a messy look to them up here. 

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Factoring in the GFS 2-meter abysmal warm bias in saturation environments, that 18z run is two day ice storm ending as 3-5" of snow on top.

Also, that's an amazing 13 days worth of pancake wave mix/snow events ... Two days cyclic -

Know what would be interesting ?   Do a day 7 snow total for the season, and compare it to the actual snow totals at the end.  I wonder if the D7 is like triple what actually happens or something -

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5 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

OT but anybody know how much snow KNYC, KPHL, KBAL, KDCA and KIAD have this season?

I know it's lower than BOS and of course ORH but just curious bad a winter it's been for them.

I'm at 3.3 in southern NYC.  I think Central Park has 4.8 inches. 

Philly and D.C dont even have an inch. 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Factoring in the GFS 2-meter abysmal warm bias in saturation environments, that 18z run is two day ice storm ending as 3-5" of snow on top.

Also, that's an amazing 13 days worth of pancake wave mix/snow events ... Two days cyclic -

Know what would be interesting ?   Do a day 7 snow total for the season, and compare it to the actual snow totals at the end.  I wonder if the D7 is like triple what actually happens or something -

At least 5x for some.

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

At least 5x for some.

I think it would depend on the run... do you only take 1 run and 7 day totals or do you do a running blend with 4 runs per day?  

I do think the ensemble snow maps are pretty solid on the whole for 7-day chunks...but they don’t have those wild swings of the Ops and are essentially an ensemble QPF map.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I like SWFE chances even if they aren’t big dogs...they are usually moderate events but widespread.  But I don’t get all jacked up on a late blooming Miller B pattern like some of ya’ll.

Of course you don't lol. Overrunning events usually delivery the bigger goods to you than a bombing coastal on the BM where more times than not you're on the NW'ern fringe of the meaningful QPF. Although you usually do clean up with the upslope stuff after the storms roll through ;)

You will always do better in crappy patterns and good patterns in your location, save for 09'-10' of course

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