weathafella Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 850 and 2M temps were ugly on EPS. That EPO looks great but all the cold dumps into the West and we have a huge SE ridge. That's a big flip from last week. I’d take the H5 look and run. 2M temperatures on ensembles 11-15 are notoriously poorly modeled. Yes we have to contend with the SE ridge but hopefully impulses will be timed ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 13 minutes ago, weathafella said: I’d take the H5 look and run. 2M temperatures on ensembles 11-15 are notoriously poorly modeled. Yes we have to contend with the SE ridge but hopefully impulses will be timed ok. Nothing has changed. That look always fosters a -PNA possibility. Take what you can get. It’s certainly no pig, in fact the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 28 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 850 and 2M temps were ugly on EPS. That EPO looks great but all the cold dumps into the West and we have a huge SE ridge. That's a big flip from last week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 This is really starting to remind me of a Virginia winter. Pure crap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 let's keep it going for Feb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 13 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Wow the west is raking this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nothing has changed. That look always fosters a -PNA possibility. Take what you can get. It’s certainly no pig, in fact the opposite. A lot has changed, that SE Ridge strength is a huge negative. Let's not spin this from what it looked like a week ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 37 minutes ago, weathafella said: I’d take the H5 look and run. 2M temperatures on ensembles 11-15 are notoriously poorly modeled. Yes we have to contend with the SE ridge but hopefully impulses will be timed ok. Run to Colorado. How many times can we say 11 to 15 looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: A lot has changed, that SE Ridge strength is a huge negative. Let's not spin this from what it looked like a week ago. A -EPO always has that possibility. Just because a smoothed out mean doesn't show it 14 days out, does not mean it's a fail. When is the last time we had those anomalies that were modeled all across the CONUS with a -EPO? Almost never. I'm pretty sure we even said it wasn't a perfect look because it could cause a gradient. That is what we will have. Why do you think I joke around with your -EPO hard on? It's playing with fire, hopefully we are on the good side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: A -EPO always has that possibility. Just because a smoothed out mean doesn't show it 14 days out, does not mean it's a fail. When is the last time we had those anomalies that were modeled all across the CONUS with a -EPO? Almost never. I'm pretty sure we even said it wasn't a perfect look because it could cause a gradient. That is what we will have. Why do you think I joke around with your -EPO hard on? It's playing with fire, hopefully we are on the good side. I always say the huge negative EPO dump is great and models over do the SE ridge. I am responding verbatim. We shall see if the models are overdone with the SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: I always say the huge negative EPO dump is great and models over do the SE ridge. I am responding verbatim. We shall see if the models are overdone with the SE ridge. I tend to think if anything guidance is too weak with SE ridges when these cold dumps. It's certainly a gradient with frigid air nearby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I think hideous is a bit harsh. We can roll with it, it’s a bit of a gamble. Yeah I feel like that was a tweet trying to rile up the snow weenies. He does that now and then, lol. We've had plenty of -EPO/-PNA/+NAO looks that work....Large chunks of the 2007-2008 winter, Feb 2014, Feb 1994, etc. Hell, check Feb 1967. Doesnt always work of course (see large chunks of last winter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I feel like that was a tweet trying to rile up the snow weenies. He does that now and then, lol. We've had plenty of -EPO/-PNA/+NAO looks that work....Large chunks of the 2007-2008 winter, Feb 2014, Feb 1994, etc. Hell, check Feb 1967. Doesnt always work of course (see large chunks of last winter) Everyone is annoyed so I don’t blame them. At this point you just sort of roll with things and hope we are on the good side. There is absolutely frigid air in Canada during the 11-15 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Everyone is annoyed so I don’t blame them. At this point you just sort of roll with things and hope we are on the good side. There is absolutely frigid air in Canada during the 11-15 day. There was frigid air also in Canada first half of January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Winter is over...know it, accept it, embrace it. It's time to move on...making up fantasies of about how things can change isn't going to make it a reality. Just think summer thoughts...hot tubs, sun tanning, sexy cumulus growing in the sky, thunder, lightning, hail...ahhhhh that's better 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 21 minutes ago, qg_omega said: There was frigid air also in Canada first half of January Doesn’t look comparable to what the EPS is showing. That was a +EPO pattern that kept all the cold mostly bottled up in Yukon/NW territories and BC. Central and eastern Canada torched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Doesn’t look comparable to what the EPS is showing. That was a +EPO pattern that kept all the cold mostly bottled up in Yukon/NW territories and BC. Central and eastern Canada torched Yeah the Tropospheric PV is in Hudson Bay as modeled, so that is nothing like early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 3 hours ago, Digityman said: A 100 years ago you learned everything you knew from your parents or aunts/uncles. Occasionally your grandparents would hopefully set it all straight. Now you have the history of the world literally at your fingertips instantaneously. The problem, as you know, is sometimes that's overload. The 24 hour news cycle does not help. Unfortunately it's not going to change and we can't dig our heals in and complain about it because then the world will just pass us by. I'm not sure of the solution or even if there is one.... Climb on top of someone you love - that slows it down 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 2 hours ago, weathafella said: Wolfie has lost any sense of relevance with those statements. He’s either not looking or trolling. Certainly not trolling Gerry..I don’t roll like that at all. The look has changed, and that was my point. Ginxy said it too..the look isn’t what it was Late last week. It’ll change again too. I hope we get fortunate. As Scott said, I hope we are on the right/good side of the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 American tele's are bring an early end to winter... Then, we'll probably get a cold even in march when the spring relaxation builds a west based NAO block ... I mentioned this a couple days ago - ... We'll see.. But I've never seen so many crushing mid level wind velocities across mid latitudes in the GFS ever! That run is historic in an insidious way. In fact, look at it at 108 hours THAT is what f-up your storm.... Not N/stream this and S/stream that...no, the Pacific fist running a 120 kt sustain over top ridge arc wind tube is NEVER going to allow a storm to fester up the EC... It could be a wrong as a solution ...but it timing something differently has to happen - 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Doesn’t look comparable to what the EPS is showing. That was a +EPO pattern that kept all the cold mostly bottled up in Yukon/NW territories and BC. Central and eastern Canada torched 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah the Tropospheric PV is in Hudson Bay as modeled, so that is nothing like early January. Yes, and the higher hgts in the pac was more of a dateline ridge. We didn’t have a way to get the cold down into the conus during early January. With the -epo we will. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Pete B going for near 60F early next week. We approve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Wow the west is raking this winter We've been raking since fall 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 22 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Pete B going for near 60F early next week. We approve. Sell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Sell He did say that string of mild air next week could completely turn and we end up closer to normal but that's what he has for now. Unreal that January is over 9 degrees above normal at KBOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 30, 2020 Author Share Posted January 30, 2020 It can still be a Feb to rememba folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: It can still be a Feb to rememba folks. But probably not lol... Hey I hope so, but I think the winter has shown us its hand. And it isn’t a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 14 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: It can still be a Feb to rememba folks. Yeah...but for for what? Maybe for something like 2018? https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2018-02-16-big-temperature-contrasts-mid-february-record-cold-northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 17 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: It can still be a Feb to rememba folks. Yeah....probably for all the wrong reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 sne and i 95 will get a least two blizzards between now and march 3 still going for lots of snow too . disagree with those that winter is over its not . best weather person is brad field from ct he has pod cast . 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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