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Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion


TalcottWx
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That's a pretty reasonable EPS look at this point...I think it tells us a lot in terms of the probabilities right now. You're prob looking at 40% odds or so of something close enough for eastern areas and less than that for western areas.

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6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea, east is best here. I’d hedge late phase given the flow and abundance of sw’s.

Saturday we will all be watching satellite loops, having early phase hallucinations, thinking the ots forecast is wrong....only to have the models in the end being correct even though it was soooo close...

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2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Saturday we will all be watching satellite loops, having early phase hallucinations, thinking the ots forecast is wrong....only to have the models in the end being correct even though it was soooo close...

Yea. It will back in enough to give us an inch or two while sema folks tickle each other to a foot plus. 

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16 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Lot of lean way east and se there... almost feel like that’s the majority.

However, the ones that do come pretty close are whoppers 

The trend on the EPS since yesterday has been modestly east and much weaker. There were also of 940s alot of 950s yesterday, which are all like 965-970 now.

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Could be anything.  Could be a complete Miss. Could be a weak POS with all these shortwaves all over and nothing congeals?  Could be, Could be. Could be?   I love how the East crowd automatically think it's gonna be east for easterners.  If this Phases strong and Earlier...it'll be at the BM or a tad west of that I bet and a powerhouse.   Obviously if it phases late then its off to the east, or a complete miss too.  With all those S/W's in the flow...this has eons to go before we know anything of significance.

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The trend on the EPS since yesterday has been modestly east and much weaker. There were also of 940s alot of 950s yesterday, which are all like 965-970 now.

Well to be fair...those 940's and 950's were not believable at all imo...and a 965 or 970 mb low is no weak storm by any stretch either...and much more realistic.

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Could be anything.  Could be a complete Miss. Could be a weak POS with all these shortwaves all over and nothing congeals?  Could be, Could be. Could be?   I love how the East crowd automatically think it's gonna be east for easterners.  If this Phases strong and Earlier...it'll be at the BM or a tad west of that I bet and a powerhouse.   Obviously if it phases late then its off to the east, or a complete miss too.  With all those S/W's in the flow...this has eons to go before we know anything of significance.

A storm near the BM or a tad west would still favor eastern and central areas. You need it tucked under LI to favor west.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

A storm near the BM or a tad west would still favor eastern and central areas. You need it tucked under LI to favor west.

A tad west of the BM works perfectly for my locale, and Bergs as well....far Western CT and Mass then under LI is better for them.  I was speaking for my area is what I meant. 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well to be fair...those 940's and 950's were not believable at all imo...and a 965 or 970 mb low is no weak storm by any stretch either...and much more realistic.

Its rare, but not unheard of..January 2018 was like 954mb. Anyway, just objectivity noting the trend.

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You definitely would rather be east than west at this point...the ensembles on all guidance show this.

 

But it can obviously still change...that's just what the landscape looks like at day 6. If you hate uncertainty, then log off for 3 days and then check back in...the guidance will have a lot more confidence at day 3.

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