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Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion


TalcottWx
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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

That was written about the model a long time ago. We sure that's still the case? 

Seems to still do it at times.   

 

Any one of these SW's can mess up this whole set up...and the final outcome could be nothing like what we have seen so far.  This may potentially turn out to be nothing like what we've been seeing so far.  This is so far from being figured out...??

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1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

That was written about the model a long time ago. We sure that's still the case? 

I mentioned that earlier - it might have been a real bias in the old days, or it might have been voodoo.  I'm sure there are a host of new issues with the Euro that are more "real."

It is uncanny though that we are seeing that again.   

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

From what I read not long ago it's still a bias, though not as extreme as it used to be. 

It still is.  The Euro has 3 notable biases.  At least the Op.  Over-amplification in the 84-144 range, SW shortwave issues, and a bias towards overamplifying RNA patterns beyond 180.   We have seen the Op love to show SE ridges at all times of the year beyond day 7 and when we get there the flow is zonal or even an eastern trof 

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1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Guys you guys are very knowledgeable... I have a question, do you guys think that New York City is game over for this upcoming threat cause all the guys on the nyc forum think it is except us weenies of course? All jokes aside is it over or not?

no one knows at this range. thats impossible to answer. no one is out of the game yet. Right now many solutions are on the table. All these SW have not been properly sampled yet either. patience.

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Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

Guys you guys are very knowledgeable... I have a question, do you guys think that New York City is game over for this upcoming threat cause all the guys on the nyc forum think it is except us weenies of course? All jokes aside is it over or not?

Dude  Come on

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Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

Guys you guys are very knowledgeable... I have a question, do you guys think that New York City is game over for this upcoming threat cause all the guys on the nyc forum think it is except us weenies of course? All jokes aside is it over or not?

No.  This isn’t a Miller B event.  There is a narrow possibility the NS interaction happens late enough for SNE but not NYC but that is a fairly unusual scenario with Miller As.  I can count on one hand the number of times NYC has had a total miss with a Miller A and SNE has been destroyed due to late NS interaction or capturing.  Now they may see way less snow like a 1/26/87 but not a total shutout 

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1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Guys you guys are very knowledgeable... I have a question, do you guys think that New York City is game over for this upcoming threat cause all the guys on the nyc forum think it is except us weenies of course? All jokes aside is it over or not?

I think it's a long shot for coastal areas. Just a lot of things going against it. 

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5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It still is.  The Euro has 3 notable biases.  At least the Op.  Over-amplification in the 84-144 range, SW shortwave issues, and a bias towards overamplifying RNA patterns beyond 180.   We have seen the Op love to show SE ridges at all times of the year beyond day 7 and when we get there the flow is zonal or even an eastern trof 

It wouldn't surprise me if the EC still has the SW US bias....maybe just not as intense as it used to be. I remember looking for more information on newer versions of the ECMWF last winter, but the latest I could find was 2011 or 2012 and it still had the bias back then of heights too low on D+3 forecast over the SW CONUS.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

It wouldn't surprise me if the EC still has the SW US bias....maybe just not as intense as it used to be. I remember looking for more information on newer versions of the ECMWF last winter, but the latest I could find was 2011 or 2012 and it still had the bias back then of heights too low on D+3 forecast over the SW CONUS.

They’ve done so many darn updates it’s hard to track.  The January 2013 or 2014 update (I blocked the storm out of my mind) was right before the massive NYC bust and the model really struggled after that.  Subsequent smaller upgrades have improved it and the upgrade in April 2019 appeared to solve that mid range overamp bias however the last 4 weeks that bias has returned again.  In October thru December I thought for a time the upgraded improved it 

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11 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Guys you guys are very knowledgeable... I have a question, do you guys think that New York City is game over for this upcoming threat cause all the guys on the nyc forum think it is except us weenies of course? All jokes aside is it over or not?

You seriously need to ask that??? Check back Thursday or so

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11 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Guys you guys are very knowledgeable... I have a question, do you guys think that New York City is game over for this upcoming threat cause all the guys on the nyc forum think it is except us weenies of course? All jokes aside is it over or not?

This post belongs in the weenie hall of fame

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