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Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion


TalcottWx
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Here is 2015. At 50mb, it's more near and just north of Siberia...not so much in Canada or over Hudson Bay. However, as Tombo noted a few days ago, you can see a big ridge in AK and the elongation favorable for cold air delivery. You don't have to have the strat PV sitting in Canada. That 50mb look would be fine. 

Also note I am no expert...just sort of going by what makes sense to me. 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Here is 2015. At 50mb, it's more near and just north of Siberia...not so much in Canada or over Hudson Bay. However, as Tombo noted a few days ago, you can see a big ridge in AK and the elongation favorable for cold air delivery. You don't have to have the strat PV sitting in Canada. That 50mb look would be fine. 

Also note I am no expert...just sort of going by what makes sense to me. 

 

 

 

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Placement of the warmest temperatures anomalies I think worked in our favor significantly as well:

 

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also the core of the westerlies surrounding the SPV were displaced towards the other side of the hemisphere 

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But I think I am a little confused about something...this event in 2015 (since i don't remember off the top of my head is that referring to a strong PV or weakened PV? Based on what you posted and what i did I would assume the PV is pretty strong here (2015)...which is a good thing that it is displaced towards the other side of the globe. A strong PV displaced south into Canada would result in strong westerlies over the U.S. 

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45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think looking at the H5 pattern is a better way to understand vs text values. 

I took a peak at the GEFS 12z and I do like seeing troughing on the east coast, but the AK vortex is not budging and it looks as though the ridge over Hawaii returns. GEPS 0z was much better but I trust GEFS more and it's been the default pattern recently it seams (the Hawaii ridge especially)

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38 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I took a peak at the GEFS 12z and I do like seeing troughing on the east coast, but the AK vortex is not budging and it looks as though the ridge over Hawaii returns. GEPS 0z was much better but I trust GEFS more and it's been the default pattern recently it seams (the Hawaii ridge especially)

Noticed that too.  that pig can rule the roost, but we shall see.  I suspect a transient, less amplified trough if anything.  

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Just now, Sn0waddict said:

There was a time where this would get me excited. Now as Kev says we toss all models. 
 

I'm not sure I ever got excited for a 204 hour prog....we used to not even really look past D6-7....though maybe we'd peak just for fun at the clown range.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm not sure I ever got excited for a 204 hour prog....we used to not even really look past D6-7....though maybe we'd peak just for fun at the clown range.

Then the stupid snow maps came along. 

There are people who will post total snowfall through 384-HR TO ILLUSTRATE WHAT TYPE OF PATTERN MAY BE....WTF????????

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