• Member Statistics

    15,756
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    McHenrySnow
    Newest Member
    McHenrySnow
    Joined
HoarfrostHubb

January 25-26 Threat

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that’s pretty far NW. looks like congrats dryslot.  

This went from excitement to just having diarrhea right here in my pants on the couch in one run. I guess it’s time to stop tracking 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This went from excitement to just having diarrhea right here in my pants on the couch in one run. I guess it’s time to stop tracking 

I'd give the overnight suite and 12 tomorrow....we're still 4-5 days out. If it trends another solid tick N during those next two cycles, then it's probably lights out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd give the overnight suite and 12 tomorrow....we're still 4-5 days out. If it trends another solid tick N during those next two cycles, then it's probably lights out.

I just want to know what happened. We had such solid trends and Ray was issuing snow maps. In one run we went to watching it snow in Montreal . We need to see 00z move south. 12z may not matter of it doesn’t 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Thread starting d6 jinx. 

Hubbdave gets kudos....aced this exam in under 12 hours. Lol.

 

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I just want to know what happened. We had such solid trends and Ray was issuing snow maps. In one run we went to watching it snow in Montreal . We need to see 00z move south. 12z may not matter of it doesn’t 

Guidance obviously "saw" something after 12z today that caused it to rotate the ULL north instead of ENE once it reached the Ohio valley. It could be wrong....but it's obviously what is causing the big move today. The ULL out to the west of that has actually been coming in pretty far south, so we can hope that starts to translate further east as we get closer. I agree that if 00z makes another big jump, then 12z is almost already out of the game. There's not a lot of margin for error on this system with this airmass. You couldn't expect this system to not move much at all when it was like 8-9 days out when we started tracking it.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I just want to know what happened. We had such solid trends and Ray was issuing snow maps. In one run we went to watching it snow in Montreal . We need to see 00z move south. 12z may not matter of it doesn’t 

Actually, I never issued a snow map if you had read the blog on Sunday, which should have told you something. My position was that some snow was possible across parts of the area, but it would track too far to the north for the most part.

First Call is tomorrow...

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, KoalaBeer said:

I was only 11 but have vague memories of going snowboarding over at Ski Bradford for that one. Looks like that one was a banger up here. 

This thread also popped up while googling that storm. 

 

SnowTotals-05Mar01.jpg

Love to do that over again as long as the other thing that happened to me doesn’t happen again. My boiler died and the service guys had a hell of a time getting the new one in the basement. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Long way to go. But I just can’t see how it doesn’t come out off of Jersey shore 

Lol..this is over for SNE. But I appreciated your enthusiasm the last couple days, but this was always a very delicate situation.  And it’s over now for us.  This winter is heading to Rat city it looks!  
 

Next!  If there is a next?  11-12 knocking on the door. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol..this is over for SNE. But I appreciated your enthusiasm the last couple days, but this was always a very delicate situation.  And it’s over now for us.  This winter is heading to Rat city it looks!  
 

Next!  If there is a next?  11-12 knocking on the door. 

I have never felt as though this ends well for most of sne, but its not over. We are still 5 days out and the ULL has trended south in the shorter term....the north trend is out in medium range.

Well, it probably is over for you, but not all if us...

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol..this is over for SNE. But I appreciated your enthusiasm the last couple days, but this was always a very delicate situation.  And it’s over now for us.  This winter is heading to Rat city it looks!  
 

Next!  If there is a next?  11-12 knocking on the door. 

I think it's premature to call it over for SNE....particularly the interior elevated terrain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think higher elevations south of the pike and everyone north of the pike is still in it for some appreciable snow.

Agreed. We obviously need to stop the trend of the sling-shotting ULL northward once it reaches WV or so...I think that's well understood. But if that happens, then it is still very much a threat. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I was at Bridgton Academy in 2010-11. I fell in love with the area. Really wanted to coach and teach there but the money wasn't feasible.

My GF won't go for somewhere that remote. Will have to be somewhat near a metro area, an hour from Portland wouldn't cut it.

BTV/Waterbury/Montpelier corridor in VT. Probably somewhere closer to BTV

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Agreed. We obviously need to stop the trend of the sling-shotting ULL northward once it reaches WV or so...I think that's well understood. But if that happens, then it is still very much a threat. 

What is causing that? A decay of the confluence?

I haven't looked at much yet tonight....that seems correctable, at least to a degree...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I was really just hoping for some downed trees and lines. I mean is that really that much to ask for?

Summer EF-3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Given antecedent airmass and tenor of the season over the last 6 weeks, this has felt like a C/NNE threat to me.  This is not to say western and higher terrain of SNE can’t score some love but nothing noteworthy to me.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have never felt as though this ends well for most of sne, but its not over. We are still 5 days out and the ULL has trended south in the shorter term....the north trend is out in medium range.

Well, it probably is over for you, but not all if us...

lol...you live a piss length from NH, most of SNE is south and west of you..it’s over for most of us except a few up high or way north in SNE.  
 

And I say this because this season can’t hold on to anything of significance since Dec 2nd. It’s a lousy season for most of us.  Doesn’t look to change anytime soon either.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, WinterWolf said:

lol...you live a piss length from NH, most of SNE is south and west of you..it’s over for most of us except a few up high or way north in SNE.  
 

And I say this because this season can’t hold on to anything of significance since Dec 2nd. It’s a lousy season for most of us.  Doesn’t look to change anytime soon either.  

Fair enough.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NAM is well south of 18z through 54 hours...and any other guidance. So that trend continues. Question is what happens later. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wonder if this breaks the record for fastest spin up to double digits page number for no reason. Haha

Seriously… I’m actually with Will.  It was always going to be tonight and tomorrow’s runs it really solidify this one way or the other because were bringing the stuff on board from off the open Pacific and it just it’s a week flow arena and that usually means that there are subtleties or details in there that need to be sampled properly. It’s like we have the opposite problem from over the last month when things were to screaming and fast

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If the northward trend on major guidance continues overnight I would consider it a dead Rainer for even me, but I’m not throwing in the towel just yet.  
I still think plowable is possible here   Sorry / not sorry

At least it unclogged the Jan pattern thread.  

The thread I started for Saturday’s event did ok.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nam looks great

Hopefully it's a sign of things to come 

PNA is going positive so maybe the models will adjust. 

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Nammy hour 84 ULL In Extreme NW Ohio

goos nite 

Yeah it literally almost goes due north the final 18 hours. 

But what's funny about that is the NAM actually doesn't look bad because it has a lot of low pressure well out to the east...it's almost as if it winds up far enough west and the energy pinwheeling to the east helps out with the overall ageostrophic look...granted, we're talking the 84h clown range NAM here but just another solution. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.