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January 25-26 Threat


HoarfrostHubb
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12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’m just going by the soundings they have. They looked isothermal where it was painting snow. Maybe they improved the ptype maps with all of the mandatory levels added. I didn’t look at a clown though. 

The pivotal map actually has a little weenie region of 850 temps below zero in the mahoosucs and whites. The wsi maps don't have that and have the like more up toward Rangeley and Sugarloaf.

Wouldnt exactly give me the kushies though even if I was at Sunday river. But verbatim I can see why pivotal is showing paste. 

 

IMG_4385.PNG

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It's worth it to ask... because you know, these hint, frets and starts, if not outright modeled depictions, of quasi cutting 500 mb lows going under our latitude from earlier this week/last weekend, not one person - including self ...hey - post one word about that being against the seasonal trend.  

Seasonal trend has always been part of determinism in this game.  Your 'ephermeral' climate bias.  We have been sending trough core of the ST L ever since early December.  Anyway, maybe we've been ignoring some obvious red flags?  just wonderin'

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FWIW, here's the ECMWF's forecast for the snow line on Saturday night. It reads out the topography where snow is falling, which is why the whites/greens/dacks show up even though it's cold enough for snow there.

us_model-en-153-0_modez_2020012212_87_5662_307.thumb.png.6a0cb15aabb828fc6035d7dbebce9c10.png

The bottom of the warm layer is still pretty darn high (3000-7000ft) over SNE. Even over the Catskills, it's >4000ft (higher than the terrain there). 

Checking lower level temps (sfc-850mb), we see that the warm layer is pretty warm and pretty deep until you hit NH/VT/ME or the NY Thruway

us_model-en-153-0-zz_modez_2020012212_87_5662_210.thumb.png.378baf644af36daf36244370be800e4d.png

us_model-en-153-0-zz_modez_2020012212_87_5662_459.thumb.png.922b96fe366c881bb1dc258421d81ef5.pngus_model-en-153-0-zz_modez_2020012212_87_5662_308.thumb.png.ebf67202c6ddaab458436e7292718896.png

Gonna be hard to punch through that, even if you get intense lifting. 

us_model-en-153-0_modez_2020012212_114_5662_323.thumb.png.e86a318a9f2f4673a695da68fafef168.png

The ECMWF's QPF-falling-as-snow forecast I think does a pretty good job with the spatial extent of who is snow and who is rain. Multiply by a ratio of your choice at your own risk haha, even in the Greens/Whites, warm temps into the 700mb layer should do a number on our ability to grow dendrites efficiently

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's worth it to ask... because you know, these hint, frets and starts, if not outright modeled depictions, of quasi cutting 500 mb lows going under our latitude from earlier this week/last weekend, not one person - including self ...hey - post one word about that being against the seasonal trend.  

Seasonal trend has always been part of determinism in this game.  Your 'ephermeral' climate bias.  We have been sending trough core of the ST L ever since early December.  Anyway, maybe we've been ignoring some obvious red flags?  just wonderin'

In fairness, the pattern is not the same as that SE ridge with 588 heights up into Atlanta...this was a very low gradient pattern with spring bowling ball potential. 576 line camping out down in south Florida. 

So I think there was some reason to believe it could easily bowl its way across the TN valley and off the coast of NJ. That was obviously negated by the confluence to the north weakening significantly in the past 36 hours allowing this to just pinwheel up into Ohio and now upstate NY. The lessening confluence seemed to go against the seasonal trend ironically...we had a lot of events where confluence seemed to strengthen as we got closer. 

Probably this mostly boils down to that it's hard for models to predict storms at 5-6 days out. Lot of moving parts and we didn't have much margin for error in this torchy El Niño look this week. 

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The pivotal map actually has a little weenie region of 850 temps below zero in the mahoosucs and whites. The wsi maps don't have that and have the like more up toward Rangeley and Sugarloaf.

Wouldnt exactly give me the kushies though even if I was at Sunday river. But verbatim I can see why pivotal is showing paste. 

 

IMG_4385.PNG

The maps you’re looking at are definitely not as resolute as the pivotal ones.We do get the higher resolution euro. But, and I think this is what you are referring to earlier, the snow maps were spitting out snow when 925 and 850 temps were just above 0C.I know I made previous comments earlier in December about how they were giving the snow amounts that they showed. 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The maps you’re looking at are definitely not as resolute as the pivotal ones.We do get the higher resolution euro. But, and I think this is what you are referring to earlier, the snow maps were spitting out snow when 925 and 850 temps were just above 0C.I know I made previous comments earlier in December about how they were giving the snow amounts that they showed. 

Pivotal is high resolution now, weather .us is too

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14 minutes ago, forecasterjack said:

yep the high res makes a big difference, as does being able to zoom in. ME/NH stay <0C at 850mb for the duration of the event https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/707-w-441-n/temperature-850hpa/20200126-0300z.html

 

us_model-en-153-0_modez_2020012212_87_7897_308.png

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Hey Jack didn't realize it was you. Still have to wonder if like Will says this doesn't cut to Toronto. I suspect it over corrected and will go back to that over Mass track

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11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Hey Jack didn't realize it was you. Still have to wonder if like Will says this doesn't cut to Toronto. I suspect it over corrected and will go back to that over Mass track

hi! 

10 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I don't know where to find EPS but does it offer any hope of an overcorrection as Steve posits?

Let's take a look at the EPS...

us_model-en-153-0-zz_modez_2020012212_93_5662_828.thumb.png.faacf02def94a18896888a03d9b9b6c2.png

All members have honed in on a low track somewhere between the Mass Pike and Long Island. There's still a bit of variability within those bounds though, and that will make all the difference for N MA/S VT/S NH/S ME. 

us_model-en-153-0_modez_2020012212_99_5662_826.thumb.png.0d934030280e512d7ab2b59b4384302c.png

Taking a look at EPS snow depth forecasts for after the event, it's pretty clear that even in the more southern solutions, the I-95 corridor is all rain. You'll note a lot more spread as you move into the Catskills/Albany/Berkshires/Southern NH/Worcester Hills area. That's where future adjustments in track/intensity will make all the difference IMO.

us_model-en-153-0_modez_2020012212_87_5662_756.thumb.png.956bf73b760f643c744fba88fdea1e38.png

Another way to look at this is by seeing what the coldest 2m temp forecast among all the EPS members is. For 10 PM Saturday when the heavier precip would be around, even the coldest ECMWF members have the I-95 >32F. 

So there's still some room for a southeastward correction, but it's probably too small to matter much for the I-95. Interior areas though definitely should keep watching

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Yeah. I was looking at pivotal soundings. Pretty much isothermal for Mitch and Gene at peak.

It is. Would be a quick 6-8" thump verbatim before going to a light 33° F drizzle in the dry slot. Euro has us getting a bit more Sunday too on the backside. Will take this solution in a heartbeat.

 

Screen Shot 2020-01-22 at 4.17.41 PM.png

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Hey Jack didn't realize it was you. Still have to wonder if like Will says this doesn't cut to Toronto. I suspect it over corrected and will go back to that over Mass track

Someone at AMS convinced the poor bastard to apply for the GYX summer intern...

 

 

;)

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4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

thanks Steve.  that got ugly fast, but this season we wait and see if it will come back a bit.  Only needs to shift a bit to give us a blue bomb.  I feel bad for you guys in most of SNE - this is a winter of a lot of frustrations.

I think you will be fine. If ICON is leading the way like some one said 18Z provides hope

19CBBD70-FBB7-4917-AD30-96CBFEBCDFE0.png

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Good job Chris, that boy got game. Like drafting Burrows as a Junior

:lol: It wasn't me either. But I would happily welcome him for a few months.

Still shaking off the cobwebs after vacation, but I wish there was a stronger signal on ensemble sensitivity. Still a little unclear even 60 hours from now. So there could be some late surprises for my backyard.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

:lol: It wasn't me either. But I would happily welcome him for a few months.

Still shaking off the cobwebs after vacation, but I wish there was a stronger signal on ensemble sensitivity. Still a little unclear even 60 hours from now. So there could be some late surprises for my backyard.

Time to shake off the pina coladas, Were not that far off for a better outcome.

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