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January 25-26 Threat


HoarfrostHubb
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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It just came out, It tracks the low over kevins head due north over Mt Washington..........lol

Lol. Nice. So those two models were the ones hammering the north ULL earlier and the euro and GFS caved to it. Wonder if they will cave again in another run or two. 

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58 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Gem is ugly for everyone, ull ends up over Lake Ontario. Atleast the gfs still has it over SNE

I was actually comparing that 500 mb track to that guidance' ideas from four days ago, when/where it had position SE of ACK near the BM.  

It occurs to me to ask the question:  has there been a 500 mb under LI since the early Dec event?   

I'm willing to wager the majority have sawed their way up there, up thru the  ST L /NY.  

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol. Nice. So those two models were the ones hammering the north ULL earlier and the euro and GFS caved to it. Wonder if they will cave again in another run or two. 

The primary heading to the lakes is never a good sign for here and certainly not down to you, Going to have to wait on the Euro to see where its going here at 12z.

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

But look at how much higher the heights are downstream.

It's the confluence that's really gone away. I don't mind the digging for oil. The last run that was looking really good here was yesterday's 06z euro. It was probably a touch south of today's run but in looking north of Maine, that pressing shortwave is significantly weaker now. 

If we had the ULL tracking further north, all that would happen is it would pinwheel up into Toronto or something. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's the confluence that's really gone away. I don't mind the digging for oil. The last run that was looking really good here was yesterday's 06z euro. It was probably a touch south of today's run but in looking north of Maine, that pressing shortwave is significantly weaker now. 

If we had the ULL tracking further north, all that would happen is it would pinwheel up into Toronto or something. 

To me it was all about when it dove south.  Had this done all this 150mi E, we'd all be buried.

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

To me it was all about when it dove south.  Had this done all this 150mi E, we'd all be buried.

Yeah if it waited 150 miles to dive down t would have worked too...I'm just saying on previous runs, the ULL dove down in the same spot but it's where t tracked from thee that changed. 00z and 06z runs 30-36 hours ago had the ULL diving down into southern Missouri almost exactly where today's 12z run is...the problem is those runs then tracked it ENE across KY, WV, and eventually near philly and south of SNE. Today's run brings the low north-northeast through Southern Illinois and then Indiana and NW Ohio and into upstate NY. 

We lost the pseudo blocking mechanism that forced a more eastward track. A lot of that was probably due to the pressing arctic shortwave rounding the vortex near Greenland coming in weaker. There may have been some other nuances in Canada further west too. 

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