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January 25-26 Threat


HoarfrostHubb
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20 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

If it indeed trends weaker then the goal posts will be a narrow range of latitudes that get the best lift and totals.  Your call for Monads out to Hunter would probably be on.

I was really hoping to see the Whites buried b/c I have a few weekends planned up there in early Feb but MWV totals look meh'.

I was hoping the whites will get the goods too, as well as NVT.  Theres no coverage in the southern mtns right now so even with a good bit of snow the trees are mostly a no go.  Seems like NVT is getting shadowed by the whites or there's just not enough qpf making it up there from the east.  I still think the whites can do okay though.  

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will stopped posting . That’s always a bad sign 

Nah working all morning. Just checked in at lunch and this has gotten even worse. GFS is becoming the southern outlier and it still stinks for SNE. 

Im guessing this trend has CNE in the crosshairs next for termination. Lol. Maybe powderfreak can still do well. 

Well see if the euro wants to change the trend but I'm skeptical. 

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21 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

It's impressive to me how the level of model agreement (at least in the OPs) is decreasing with time.

I don't know diddly about the data assimilation mechanics of the individual modeling systems, but when the system was over the eastern Pacific and really only being sampled by satellite, we had pretty good agreement. (look at 00z Tue runs for example).

But as soon as the system came onshore of the west coast and presumably was sampled by the radiosonde network, the goal posts between the individual modeling systems seem to be widening. Definitely from an OP perspective and a bit from an ensemble perspective. The GEPS is way west compared to EPS and GEFS (00z suite).

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