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January 25-26 Threat


HoarfrostHubb
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3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Thinking the warming/north trend is nearing an end ....Trend towards south/colder likely to begin shortly...How far? Not sure but some kind of middle ground of yesterday’s 0z/6z runs vs today’s 0z/6z runs seems like a good baseline, hedging in favor of colder/south vs warmer/north

Why? Naked under the robe today?

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why? Naked under the robe today?

Big picture. Trend in MJO and teleconnections all points towards a colder solution with better surface high in NB/QC and more confluence...Canada overall is warm, but thinking conditions are suitable to generate sufficient regional cold, given climo, snowpack, and the above...

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What had to happen? Stronger confluence as we get closer? Stranger things have happened 

I guess if you really wanted to do that to yourself - 

There is another strong ULL out in the Pacific about halfway between HI and AK that ejects some energy into the CONUS after our main wave. We've had storms ruined at the last minute by a kicker shunting them east, it's always possible this follow-up wave comes in at a strength/orientation/timing that is more conductive to acting as a kicker.

I wouldn't bet anything on it though.

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Big picture. Trend in MJO and teleconnections all points towards a colder solution with better surface high in NB/QC and more confluence...Canada overall is warm, but thinking conditions are suitable to generate sufficient regional cold, given climo, snowpack, and the above...

image.png.b2aabdec0be145525d3fc6dba60ab868.png

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9 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Big picture. Trend in MJO and teleconnections all points towards a colder solution with better surface high in NB/QC and more confluence...Canada overall is warm, but thinking conditions are suitable to generate sufficient regional cold, given climo, snowpack, and the above...

Don't models have a difficult time with handling confluence too? I remember some previous storms where confluence was a factor we saw last minute shifts south...and sometimes the south track resulted in suppression...thankfully this is a situation where we wouldn't have to worry about that so confluence may be our friend this time 

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13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Don't models have a difficult time with handling confluence too? I remember some previous storms where confluence was a factor we saw last minute shifts south...and sometimes the south track resulted in suppression...thankfully this is a situation where we wouldn't have to worry about that so confluence may be our friend this time 

I’m unsure. But to me what’s important is Canada in general is torched but the only region showing negative Temp anomalies at 850 and surface is QC. Current guidance has that cold easily eroding but I don’t think that gets scoured so quickly/easily and instead we see a more pronounced CAD drain...

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10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I’m unsure. But to me what’s important is Canada in general is torched but the only region showing negative Temp anomalies at 850 and surface is QC. Current guidance has that cold easily eroding but I don’t think that gets scoured so quickly/easily and instead we see a more pronounced CAD drain...

This is actually hinted at pretty well with the latest NAM

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I would lean weaker more progressive and some elevation snows esp S VT and Monads over 1500’ that do well on E flow. 

Storm is weak on almost all guidance and airmass is crap. 

If it indeed trends weaker then the goal posts will be a narrow range of latitudes that get the best lift and totals.  Your call for Monads out to Hunter would probably be on.

I was really hoping to see the Whites buried b/c I have a few weekends planned up there in early Feb but MWV totals look meh'.

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