Bostonseminole Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 good news: it should be getting close to NAM time range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2020 Author Share Posted January 21, 2020 I suppose if one was anticipating Dec 1992 or March 1997 these runs would be a disappointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah they are in a good spot right now, but you are right the ULL did trend north too...still, this solution would work for a lot of SNE if we can actually hold the line on this type of solution. How’s it look for us down at the coast? RAIN!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Pretty solid for the interior. I guess some expected Dec 92? Were some expecting Dec 3rd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I suppose if one was anticipating Dec 1992 or March 1997 these runs would be a disappointment See ...this sort of insinuates that expectation was set? That's on the part of the reader unfortunately. The ULL behavior and so forth does mimick those events. But there's no declaration of for a redux there. Truth be told, the same sort of comparisons could be drafted up and said for any partial/quasi-closed system that moves along as such... That's all it is/was. One should be able to mention and have the reader process properly - yeah, I know. It's like you can't bare mention at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Too bad the mean takes all the rogue/unlikely solutions into the equation. Majority of members were north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I suppose if one was anticipating Dec 1992 or March 1997 these runs would be a disappointment When these dates get thrown around some just run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2020 Author Share Posted January 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: See ...this sort of insinuates that expectation was set? That's on the part of the reader unfortunately. The ULL behavior and so forth does mimick those events. But there's no declaration of for a redux there. Truth be told, the same sort of comparisons could be drafted up and said for any partial/quasi-closed system that moves along as such... That's all it is/was. One should be able to mention and have the reader process properly - yeah, I know. It's like you can't bare mention at all. Mention away. Some folks might expect storms like that to happen. Buyer beware and all. not Directed at you at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Too bad the mean takes all the rogue/unlikely solutions into the equation. Majority of members were north. It appears there was more spread in that direction without even looking at the individuals and just looking at the contours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: When these dates get thrown around some just run with it. I think analogs are kinda stupid. I totally get the significance of them but I think they're misinterpreted or misunderstood. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: I think analogs are kinda stupid. I totally get the significance of them but I think they're misinterpreted or misunderstood. The problem is, Even if they look similar, There are no two that are alike or that you can expect the same results, they give you a baseline of what could happen in a similar setup, That's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 I don't think that many folks mentioned 92 as happening, it was more of a discussion. Actually I enjoy folks bringing up analogs, allows me to research other storms I have no clue about.. In the end, I don't care what analog it is, I just want some decent snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: The problem is, Even if they look similar, There are no two that are alike or that you can expect the same results. Exactly!!! A similar pattern configuration, evolution, etc isn't going to produce similar results at the surface and it may not even produce something that is remotely close. There are numerous different solutions which can result from the "same setup"...so when a result happens it was just that one result out of the xxx amount. Too much emphasis is placed on analogs...ESPECIALLY seasonal forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: Exactly!!! A similar pattern configuration, evolution, etc isn't going to produce similar results at the surface and it may not even produce something that is remotely close. There are numerous different solutions which can result from the "same setup"...so when a result happens it was just that one result out of the xxx amount. Too much emphasis is placed on analogs...ESPECIALLY seasonal forecasting Yeah, There are way to many variables to end up with the same solution verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 17 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: How’s it look for us down at the coast? RAIN!? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Exactly!!! A similar pattern configuration, evolution, etc isn't going to produce similar results at the surface and it may not even produce something that is remotely close. There are numerous different solutions which can result from the "same setup"...so when a result happens it was just that one result out of the xxx amount. Too much emphasis is placed on analogs...ESPECIALLY seasonal forecasting Chaos theory? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Yes ULL going north is bad news for the coast right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 13 minutes ago, dryslot said: The problem is, Even if they look similar, There are no two that are alike or that you can expect the same results, they give you a baseline of what could happen in a similar setup, That's about it. Well, it depends.....I mean, I wouldn't toss around 35" analogs for an 8" snowfall. I get the meteorological similarities, but there needs to be some remote sensible appeal....JMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Looks like Jan 05. 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Looks like Jan 05. Dic*...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 I never could stand the reasoning that it's up to the speaker to make sure the idiot doesn't run with a story - It takes two to tango in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Analogs are fine to discuss as long as people know why they are being discussed....problem is, too many people obsess over the snowfall and assume that it means the storm in question will produce similar amounts. Storms like Dec '92 are rare because of some of the details....like the lunar eclipse high tides plus the 12-24 hour stall. This one could produce prolific amounts of snow too if we managed to stall it a bit underneath us...prob not as much as '92, but you can get some special things when you have prolonged deep layer east flow (see Mar '13 which was vastly underpredicted in select areas)....some runs have come close to that. This won't ever match the tides of '92 though. And I agree with tip somewhat...if folks are too lazy to read into it more, then joke's on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Dic*...lol He’s been melting slowly since first week of Dec but man it is rapidly oozing from his fingertips lately...can’t control it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: I never could stand the reasoning that it's up to the speaker to make sure the idiot doesn't run with a story - It takes two to tango in that. Yea, I don't think anyone here was suggesting that 2-3' is likely, but rather the potential was there if all broke right. Always have to have that on the table with a potent closed H5 low possibly passing beneath LI in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Were some expecting Dec 3rd? Snow distribution yes,amounts no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: He’s been melting slowly since first week of Dec but man it is rapidly oozing from his fingertips lately...can’t control it. That was a joke lol. But you’re right. I’m not a fan of this look for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 I’ll take the occluded CJ I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I don't think anyone here was suggesting that 2-3' is likely, but rather the potential was there if all broke right. Always have to have that on the table with a potent closed H5 low possibly passing beneath LI in January. Some understand some don't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That was a joke lol. But you’re right. I’m not a fan of this look for this area. I would honestly take March 2001 over Jan 2005. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 ho man... what delicious misery. I hope that thing comes through as mostly cloudy dim sun sprinkles that way a ton-o hell on the face, ..then this happens 3 days later - that'd set up the devotees all sweet and proper, huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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