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January 25-26 Threat


HoarfrostHubb
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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The ULL is a bit of a mess. Another solution.

Pretty much...this just adds another potential solution to the cards instead of zeroing in on any particular solution...which is still find given the range we're at. 

The majority of the diversion within the forecast models happen around Thursday or so and it's with how the trough/ridge evolve. Once this aspect is sampled and observed I think we should have a pretty clear idea of what to expect with the only uncertainties surrounding areas which are borderline. 

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23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The seasonal shaft just won’t subside.

Yup.....can't get anything to stay together and congeal this season.   It (the season) is starting to show it's true colors now.  This will most likely be another flop for most.  Too much to have to go right in a year that can't seem to make "a Thing" go right.  

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1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

I think peeps are wishcasting this into something it's not....probably going to be some occluded piece of crap spitting graupel under dreary skies. 

Nah .. 

Seems like most credible contributors in here have it pretty well baked in that this is a piece of crap with potential.  Identifying trends that may lend to more vs less impact is part and parcel in deterministic forecasting, too - so that shouldn't be held against anyone imho.  

That said, it may also reflect more on one's own resenting of the winter thus far - ha - so they snark on others for what it is they're really doing.. 

But, I get it - some may... Look, no one should really be holding a pistol to the head of any model until this thing gets better sampling.  The Euro is showing continuity issues ...that's a red flag.. If it was handling/seeing the initialization properly it probably wouldn't be deviating from a consistency as much as it has. 

Put it this way...what if drilled a hole in the ocean to the bed rock SE of the Cape - same crap. 

 

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