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January 25-26 Threat


HoarfrostHubb
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Just now, ma blizzard said:

In this case I think QPF is misleading .. 500/700 track was really good. If we kept this look, no doubt QPF would increase as we go forward IMO 

Hedge high on QPF in the terrain-favored spots and hedge low in the valley shadows on this type of setup...I'd prob hedge higher in eastern areas too with that type of firehose.

Even during the March 2013 firehose, models did pretty poorly on the QPF. Underestimated badly in those areas.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would like to see the UK trend more decidedly south, though....we have seen the EURO blink a few times this season.

That would certainly help with confidence here..obviously could certainly happen as there is still a large spread in wiggle room with this but seeing the GFS and Euro slowly with some ticks south is somewhat of a good sign. If the 12z euro comes in anything like the Ukie that would be a bit more concerning. 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That would certainly help with confidence here..obviously could certainly happen as there is still a large spread in wiggle room with this but seeing the GFS and Euro slowly with some ticks south is somewhat of a good sign. If the 12z euro comes in anything like the Ukie that would be a bit more concerning. 

Yes, I like that the GFS has been trending towards this EURO, as it usually does. I use the GFS as an ensemble, essentially lol

Would like to see the CMC and UK trend decidedly south.

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The lack of BL resistance is allowing the models at this range to bore the low across land.   

Man, ...we really don't have much cold below the 800 mb and it's showing.   

That said, as we get closer to go time, the models may begin to hone into smaller land -vs- oceanic viscosity differences and it may end up a coastal hugger but E of ORH 

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