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January 25-26 Threat


HoarfrostHubb
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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This. Very very close for us. Like 1C off from a roof collapser.

I agree...not very far off for us. Just want to continue seeing improvements aloft...will deal with thermals as we get closer. but at the end of the day...if we continue to see these improvements aloft thermals won't be of concern 

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Just now, weathafella said:

 CMC is late 

I saw it...just came out on WSI and it's a clown solution...wrapping up a super tight, wound-up ULL that goes over like NYC, up through SNE and into Maine. It was initially further south though out in the plains/midwest, so we're starting to see a convergence there.

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1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah but latitude will be important too.  Yeah, I'd feel better over 1000' but I guess that's true with most storms right?  Could be a shadow job of baking powder here and worse in the lower valley.   

Low elevation can make out fine, as long as you don't have elevations to your north or east....and have sufficient latitude.

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4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah but latitude will be important too.  Yeah, I'd feel better over 1000' but I guess that's true with most storms right?  Could be a shadow job of baking powder here and worse in the lower valley.   

I’m thinking for mostly frozen south of a Dover NH/ MHT line elevation may play a large role 

Deep Erly flow and marginal airmass scream in and up higher to me , thou sure a 32-33 paste could occur lots of details to be worked out for my area thru 495

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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’m thinking for mostly frozen south of a Dover NH/ MHT line elevation may play a large role 

Deep Erly flow and marginal airmass scream in and up higher to me , thou sure a 32-33 paste could occur lots of details to be worked out 

This is why the exact position of the high will be so important....if I am west of the cf, and winds are NNE, there will be power issues from a great deal of paste. East of the CF, Winds are ENE and its rain.

Maybe a sharp gradient....

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would not want to be in an interior valley....I'd rather take my chances near the ocean in ne MA.

Agreed....I don't think NE MA is in a bad spot either for temps being closer to that dry air feed from the polar high.Elevation will be very useful too obvious.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is why the exact position of the high will be so important....if I am west of the cf, and winds are NNE, there will be power issues from a great deal of paste. East of the CF, Winds are ENE and its rain.

Maybe a sharp gradient....

I would rather play the odds with the CF, than be in an interior valley with on an easterly fetch aloft with a marginal air mass.

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