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Winter 2020 Med/Long Range Disco


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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ask the regulars here. I did a paper on this a few years ago. It is a real thing and rarely (6%) fails. I see no reason we wont see some flakes at some point over the next 5 days. Whether it amounts to anything is tbd.

 

I wouldn't mind a gander at that myself. Care to share? I can request on Researchgate if that helps (and if it's posted there :).

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17 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ask the regulars here. I did a paper on this a few years ago. It is a real thing and rarely (6%) fails. I see no reason we wont see some flakes at some point over the next 5 days. Whether it amounts to anything is tbd.

 

Looks like it's going to fail this time. Weekend shortwave went poof overnight. Story of the winter. 

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5 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Looks like it's going to fail this time. Weekend shortwave went poof overnight. Story of the winter. 

Any flakes is a win....even a flurry. I didnt discriminate in the study. Larger events generally dont fall into the categorical research. During offseason I may post the graphs I have been working on. The most common event for this study was flurries to 2". Warning events only occurred here 7% of the time with the former mentioned 77%! The other 16% were 2-5" events. I never expect much from the Wiggum Rule tbh but find it intriguing to watch the rubber band snap back and bring winter back even if short-lived. Btw the date range for this to work is quickly fading as Feb 14 is the cutoff for the research I have done.

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Any flakes is a win....even a flurry. I didnt discriminate in the study. Larger events generally dont fall into the categorical research. During offseason I may post the graphs I have been working on. The most common event for this study was flurries to 2". Warning events only occurred here 7% of the time with the former mentioned 77%! The other 16% were 2-5" events. I never expect much from the Wiggum Rule tbh but find it intriguing to watch the rubber band snap back and bring winter back even if short-lived. Btw the date range for this to work is quickly fading as Feb 14 is the cutoff for the research I have done.

When I read your post this morning about the 6% fail, I thought to myself this year will be the 6% what a dreadful winter this has been.

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1 hour ago, penndotguy said:

When I read your post this morning about the 6% fail, I thought to myself this year will be the 6% what a dreadful winter this has been.

Horrible. Sat-Sun is a very basic very bread n butter way we almost always score 1-4". Only this year could such a simple setup completely sh!t the bed. Really is incredible if you think about it.

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The window I have been keying on is upon us (Feb 6-14) and could very well be our last chance before the SE Ridge tries to go full latitude and lock in the 2nd half of Feb. Best shot at something appears to be developing closer to the middle/end of this period and the Great Valentine's Day Storm of 2020 may also in fact be a legit entity if you believe several pieces of guidance. Alot of well-timed players would need to interact but they are at least all showing up on the field. Bowling ball Southern low, PV wobbling thru the 50/50 region, strong arctic hp, northern energy attempting to merge with the big ull.

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_60.png

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27 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

ICOB at 12z is a SECS for our area for Valentines Day. Not saying its right....it likely isnt. But let's try this one more time.

No way. Unless we're inside 48hrs, forget about it. Wasted too much time on this pathetic winter....the writing is on the wall. Better things to do in life than track fantasy potential.

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7 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Get comfortable with cold rain, cause it's and endless onslaught to continue with no end in site. This is making last years winter of azz look pedestrian. The horror, the horror.

 

 

Watch the pattern change next month just in time for spring.

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Get comfortable with cold rain, cause it's and endless onslaught to continue with no end in site. This is making last years winter of azz look pedestrian. The horror, the horror.

 

 

I'm just getting sick of the parade of storms at this point. How many months now have been above normal with precipitation?

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