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Winter 2020 Med/Long Range Disco


Fields27
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35 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

well, to be fair, the GFS has had some semblance of this for a few days now, although it did lose it in the 06Z today.  This is the storm I posted about where the surface depiction didnt match the upper air IMO.

Problem with any potential system before the date range I've been barking about is going to be temps. Iceman referenced this the other day...there just isnt deep cold air around to support much snow over the next 10 days or so. Until the PV moves, the central Canada ridge moves out we dont have a connection to a true cold air source. Can we get something to work out before the NAO and PNA start to tango after the first few days of Feb? Sure, with a perfect track and dynamics. But we dont do thread the needle and unicorns too well.

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29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Problem with any potential system before the date range I've been barking about is going to be temps. Iceman referenced this the other day...there just isnt deep cold air around to support much snow over the next 10 days or so. Until the PV moves, the central Canada ridge moves out we dont have a connection to a true cold air source. Can we get something to work out before the NAO and PNA start to tango after the first few days of Feb? Sure, with a perfect track and dynamics. But we dont do thread the needle and unicorns too well.

All true, but as depicted, a storm like that would create its own cold air.  But, yes, I don't see it as really at all likely at this point.

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20 minutes ago, Fields27 said:

If memory serves. Doesn't the gfs handle Miller a systems rather poorly?

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk
 

The previous version was erratic until about 3 days out. No data to check with the new version since we haven't had one since its been in service full time (almost a year?). Another reason why we need a Miller A, lol.

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2 hours ago, Fields27 said:

The mid week system yes. But the super bowl system looks like a true Miller A, correct? My fault for not clarifying.

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Other way around. Euro was a hybrid Miller b for superbowl (isnt going to happen anyway...end backed off even more) and the midweek looks Miller a completely separate from the NS.

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On 1/24/2020 at 4:57 PM, CoolHandMike said:

Looking forward to wxsim saying 4-6 feet of snow next weekend. ;)

It's coming Mike....but remember it is just spitting out what the GFS and NAM are selling.....it is NOT a model.....just a tool. It will swing with every model change which we know this year is major from run to run

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In addition to my post above. Larry Cosgrove seem to think the pattern/models is pointing to another milder month here in February and also doesn't think any kid blocking will be present at least thru most of March.  On a positive note, he still believes we will turn colder and have a backloaded winter (his opinion), we'll see.

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Have been barking about the Feb 6-14 period for quite a while now as being the best pattern we will see so far this year. Key tellies are still there and moving closer and not staying put in la la land. Positive PNA, -EPO, -NAO, neutral to neg AO. Cant get specific about storms BUT the ops are beginning  to bark at this period now in addition to the ens means. This period is gaining legs. I will take a 1 week window with 1 or 2 threats. If we can lock the pattern in for longer then that is a bonus. 

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@Ralph Wiggum I'm pretty sure you were the one who had said this in the past but isn't the NAVGEM usually too suppressed when it comes to synoptic events? And when it shows an amped solution with the other models being suppressed that it will sometimes lead the way? Is this some weird weenie handbook code? Am I just making it up and misremembering another model? Anyway, the NAVGEM is way further amped and NW than the other models. 

 

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_23.png

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39 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

@Ralph Wiggum I'm pretty sure you were the one who had said this in the past but isn't the NAVGEM usually too suppressed when it comes to synoptic events? And when it shows an amped solution with the other models being suppressed that it will sometimes lead the way? Is this some weird weenie handbook code? Am I just making it up and misremembering another model? Anyway, the NAVGEM is way further amped and NW than the other models. 

 

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_23.png

Sounds good to me!

Furthermore, the 12z ICON backs it up. Rooting for the underdogs!

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