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Mid to Long Range Threats


Rjay
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The 3/4/2020 run of the 12z showed what would be an unprecedented snowstorm. The model, using the more "conservative" 10:1 ratio, showed 20" or more snow in Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston.

GFS0304202012z.jpg

The closest storm to such a solution since regular recordkeeping began in the 19th century was the February 2003 President's Day snowstorm:

GFS0304202012z-2.jpg

The closest storm that includes the pre-National Weather Service era was the January 14-16, 1831 "Great Atlantic Snowstorm." That historic blizzard dumped 2 feet of snow in Philadelphia, 18"-20" in New York City, and around 2 feet in Boston.

Almost certainly, one can expect widespread chatter on Social Media, but such a solution is highly unlikely, if not all but improbable.


First, historic March snowstorms that brought 8" or more snow to all of the aforementioned cities typically had a much more expansive cold air mass and much colder air mass available to them.

Second, the cold associated with the February 2003 snowstorm was severe even for January.

Third, the GFS is alone in depicting what would be an almost unprecedented snowstorm. And a major caveat applies:

"Several individual case studies illustrate the model still exhibits a cold bias and may produce excessive snow in the medium range."

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pns19-09gfs_v15_1.pdf

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25 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

CMC and UKMET trended west from 0Z for weekend. Still need another 100-200 mile shift to be meaningful, but not impossible. Rather not look at the fantasy storm 8 days out and wet my pants for no reason this far out

We can only hope but I think its over

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36 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 3/4/2020 run of the 12z showed what would be an unprecedented snowstorm. The model, using the more "conservative" 10:1 ratio, showed 20" or more snow in Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston.

GFS0304202012z.jpg

The closest storm to such a solution since regular recordkeeping began in the 19th century was the February 2003 President's Day snowstorm:

GFS0304202012z-2.jpg

The closest storm that includes the pre-National Weather Service era was the January 14-16, 1831 "Great Atlantic Snowstorm." That historic blizzard dumped 2 feet of snow in Philadelphia, 18"-20" in New York City, and around 2 feet in Boston.

Almost certainly, one can expect widespread chatter on Social Media, but such a solution is highly unlikely, if not all but improbable.


First, historic March snowstorms that brought 8" or more snow to all of the aforementioned cities typically had a much more expansive cold air mass and much colder air mass available to them.

Second, the cold associated with the February 2003 snowstorm was severe even for January.

Third, the GFS is alone in depicting what would be an almost unprecedented snowstorm. And a major caveat applies:

"Several individual case studies illustrate the model still exhibits a cold bias and may produce excessive snow in the medium range."

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pns19-09gfs_v15_1.pdf

NAUSEATING TEASE - GFS SHOULD BE PUT ON THE SHELF - BUT IT IS STILL NWS MODEL OF CHOICE...……….

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Don't laugh because the GFS has continually shown snow action for the 11th-12th,,  actually  for days.       Current run is 27" here!!!.      Then 5 winter like days follow------all that  snow on the ground------you know what that does for the BL.        For a six day period it averages just 30degs., about 12degs. BN------where is it tapping the cold air from?

Maybe the model is trying to score Brownie Points with the meteorological community---------you know the kind you get on your shoes when you step in it.    lol.

gfs_z500_vort_namer_34.png

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12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

NAUSEATING TEASE - GFS SHOULD BE PUT ON THE SHELF - BUT IT IS STILL NWS MODEL OF CHOICE...……….

So far, its snowy outcomes have not been mentioned by the NWS. Representative is the extended forecast discussion from Mount Holly:

The airmass will moderate as the flow becomes more
southwesterly through the weekend and will warm from the 40s on
Saturday to upper 50s Sunday and then 60s on Monday and Tuesday. The
only hitch in the this part of the extended is that clouds will
increase into Tuesday as a low pressure will track up through the
Ohio Valley and into New England on Tuesday, dragging a cold front
across our area Tuesday afternoon/evening, bringing another round of
rain to the region.
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54 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

So far, its snowy outcomes have not been mentioned by the NWS. Representative is the extended forecast discussion from Mount Holly:


The airmass will moderate as the flow becomes more
southwesterly through the weekend and will warm from the 40s on
Saturday to upper 50s Sunday and then 60s on Monday and Tuesday. The
only hitch in the this part of the extended is that clouds will
increase into Tuesday as a low pressure will track up through the
Ohio Valley and into New England on Tuesday, dragging a cold front
across our area Tuesday afternoon/evening, bringing another round of
rain to the region.

The GFS is so ridiculous it's not even worth mentioning

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I’ve moved on to just wanting spring weather (although with our luck it’ll be an awful backdoor season too). Winter’s been dead to me for a month now when the hope for any change to the AO, NAO, roaring Pacific Jet, MJO, Bueller, anything for the better ended. Nothing of any significance will happen here until that meaningfully changes and now we’re into March and the hill gets steeper every day. 

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6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’ve moved on to just wanting spring weather (although with our luck it’ll be an awful backdoor season too). Winter’s been dead to me for a month now when the hope for any change to the AO, NAO, roaring Pacific Jet, MJO, Bueller, anything for the better ended. Nothing of any significance will happen here until that meaningfully changes and now we’re into March and the hill gets steeper every day. 

I actually want this pattern to continue through June-would lessen the backdoor/onshore flow potential

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