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Mid to Long Range Threats


Rjay
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On 3/1/2020 at 3:24 PM, NEG NAO said:

12Z EPS looks better  then OP

14-km EPS Global Cyclones undefined undefined 132.png

 

On 3/1/2020 at 11:48 PM, SnowFeen1 said:

Sick run for eastern cape on the cmc

4933CCA1-6ADF-4A9B-8A38-64F81E7EABB3.png

EDAB840B-865F-45BE-B71A-7FA3C593851D.pngEven nyc and especially Long Island get in the fun

 

On 3/2/2020 at 12:41 AM, NEG NAO said:

Ukie on board

850th.conus.png

 

On 3/2/2020 at 7:30 AM, Rtd208 said:

 

 

On 3/2/2020 at 8:24 AM, Allsnow said:

DF6B780C-F008-4B6B-B4B3-FCF2021B5738.png

Fails :facepalm::gun_bandana::weep:

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9 hours ago, gravitylover said:

You obviously live a paved life :( At this point in the year a heavy wet snow will do nothing other than make mud, lots of MUD. This ruins most outdoor activities other than walking on the sidewalk (nearest one of those to me is almost 2 miles away), it wipes out the chance to get the garden going early so we can eat fresh food that's good for us and it destroys my business and puts my income off until June. If you want to see snow go find it, stop hoping for an event that will do nothing more than disrupt the lives of the other couple of million people that live in the area outside of your little Brooklyn/NYC paved and concrete world.

Sorry but this is a little harsh. Everybody has their preferences so if Anthony wants to see snow falling from the sky even if it's white rain and causes some inconvenience for some people, why should he get shit for it?

Personally, I'm hoping for an early spring. The earlier the better. The few days before this one were glorious, makes you feel alive when the warmth and sun hits you after a few months of winter even a warm winter like this one.

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40 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Sorry but this is a little harsh. Everybody has their preferences so if Anthony wants to see snow falling from the sky even if it's white rain and causes some inconvenience for some people, why should he get shit for it?

Personally, I'm hoping for an early spring. The earlier the better. The few days before this one were glorious, makes you feel alive when the warmth and sun hits you after a few months of winter even a warm winter like this one.

The kid needs it sometimes ;) It's nothing personal, I'd feed it to pretty much anyone that kept droning on like that. If it was up to me there would be snow on the ground from mid November to Easter but in a dud year like this one just get it over with, the mud has already been a problem and we don't need more.

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12 hours ago, gravitylover said:

The kid needs it sometimes ;) It's nothing personal, I'd feed it to pretty much anyone that kept droning on like that. If it was up to me there would be snow on the ground from mid November to Easter but in a dud year like this one just get it over with, the mud has already been a problem and we don't need more.

Oh I agree, on wanting to move on from this "winter" and Anthony's droning on about his longing for his long lost love Ms. Snow ;)

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30 minutes ago, romba said:

GFS cold bias looks to strike again. No other model's support this as far as I can tell.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

 

 

CMC

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

EURO

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

 

 

All 3 GFS - CMC - Euro are completely different but to be fair all 3 have not performed well this winter especially past 5 days - and at times less then 5 days out....

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53 minutes ago, romba said:

GFS cold bias looks to strike again. No other model's support this as far as I can tell.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

 

 

CMC

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

EURO

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

 

 

From the memo announcing planned implementation of the FV3-based GFS:

Several individual case studies illustrate the model still exhibits a cold bias and may produce excessive snow in the medium range.

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pns19-09gfs_v15_1.pdf

Nevertheless, the decision was made to go ahead despite the persistence of that issue. Bad decision making leads to bad outcomes. Bad outcomes can lead to a loss of confidence in the model's medium- and extended-range solutions.

At present, medium-range and extended-range cold shots and snowstorms on the GFS are suspect when no other support is present.

It should also be noted that the kind of cold that was present for the March 1956 (2nd snowstorm), 1960, and 1993 snowstorms (magnitude and expanse) is not shown on the GFS, which forecasts a storm similar to those with 10" or more snow in NYC and Boston in the Day 8-9 timeframe.

The combination of an absence of support for such a storm and lack of sufficient cold argues strongly that that GFS forecast for a major March snowstorm is likely the product of the bias(es) that remained in place. 

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18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro shifted west with the norlun but the problem are surface temps. They are warm.

Lets worry about getting the heavier precip in here first - that's the key- need more of a dynamic system to help draw the colder air in to the lower levels - 850's are not the issue

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3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

At present, medium-range and extended-range cold shots and snowstorms on the GFS are suspect when no other support is present.

Understatement of the century right there.

 

Thanks for the breakdown as always.

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26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

From the memo announcing planned implementation of the FV3-based GFS:

Several individual case studies illustrate the model still exhibits a cold bias and may produce excessive snow in the medium range.

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pns19-09gfs_v15_1.pdf

Nevertheless, the decision was made to go ahead despite the persistence of that issue. Bad decision making leads to bad outcomes. Bad outcomes can lead to a loss of confidence in the model's medium- and extended-range solutions.

At present, medium-range and extended-range cold shots and snowstorms on the GFS are suspect when no other support is present.

It should also be noted that the kind of cold that was present for the March 1956 (2nd snowstorm), 1960, and 1993 snowstorms (magnitude and expanse) is not shown on the GFS, which forecasts a storm similar to those with 10" or more snow in NYC and Boston in the Day 8-9 timeframe.

The combination of an absence of support for such a storm and lack of sufficient cold argues strongly that that GFS forecast for a major March snowstorm is likely the product of the bias(es) that remained in place. 

You wonder how things would have gone had they chosen MPAS instead.

 

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1 hour ago, SnowFeen1 said:

I know SREF’s are not that great but they’re showing 6-8 inches for the area for Friday night.

It’s over Johnny, done, finished, it’s dead Jim, fat lady has sung, say goodnight and goodbye, bring down the curtain, give it up...

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Stats people. This is for HPN. mean is 3.79. But the median would be well below that based on the clustering below 2 inches. That mean of 3.79 inches is pulled up by the extreme outliers showing insane snow amounts. This looks like white rain if we even see snow. As much as I would love to put on my snow goggles, I have to look at what the models are putting out.

Screen Shot 2020-03-04 at 11.16.31.png

Screen Shot 2020-03-04 at 11.17.45.png

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