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Mid to Long Range Threats


Rjay
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3 hours ago, CIK62 said:

12Z, GFS has 25" near the 11th., followed by at least 5 days of mid-winter weather!      Sorry, the Ensemble has zilch.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2020022912&fh=282

The 18z run has amnesia and doesn’t remember the snowstorm from the 12z run.

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16 hours ago, bluewave said:

Best looking day 7 OP Euro 500mb forecast of the season. But the interaction between the two streams needs some work. It would probably require a well timed phase for a rain to wet snow scenario.
 

148AC585-52A8-4A52-B2A7-9F33DD650AAA.thumb.png.613be1d1cab6709c455652526fd1a36c.png




 

 

Compared to what we have seen this season, this will work for me! All hail the blind squirrel!!

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Still wouldn't lose any sleep on this next 'threat' until Tuesday/Wednesday at the earliest for our forum. Right now, it looks like this would be for eastern New England. Especially with the progressive flow. We can hope it comes back but again with a sea of warmth before and after the storm we have to wonder is it worth spending millions on cleanup if it will just melt quickly? Those storms usually end up depressing me further as it just shows what the season could have been.

 

 

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Canadian still has the 993 lp phasing and close enough and snow for Northern NJ as HP builds in southern Canada - the GFS still has nothing as its cold bias is keeping the storm well out to sea GFS might correct in the coming days waiting for the EURO

prateptype.conus.png

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Just now, snowman19 said:

No one besides Snow88, Tony loves snow and JB really believe that there’s really going to be a snowstorm here Fri - Sat lol

Agreed. The pattern is terrible for any snow in this area. NE is a different ballgame

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Just now, MJO812 said:

I'm going to stay in the SNE thread where people are still in winter mode.

More  METS in that forum and some seasoned winter weather experts - Typhoon Tip etc.etc. - anyways ICON has no phase and a weaker system sliding offshore south of us

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png

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21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm going to stay in the SNE thread where people are still in winter mode.

I'm from SNE originally and my parents are still there. I'm actually up for the weekend visiting. It is a much different climate here than the metro area. Always has been. Overnight temperatures are always much different. SNE will almost always be in a better shape than we are for snow. If the threat is marginal for SNE, then it isn't even a threat in our area 95% of the time. Have you been able to get up north this winter? It is worth escaping for a weekend before nobody is left in winter mode. 

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5 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I'm from SNE originally and my parents are still there. I'm actually up for the weekend visiting. It is a much different climate here than the metro area. Always has been. Overnight temperatures are always much different. SNE will almost always be in a better shape than we are for snow. If the threat is marginal for SNE, then it isn't even a threat in our area 95% of the time. Have you been able to get up north this winter? It is worth escaping for a weekend before nobody is left in winter mode. 

I was going to go to Cooperstown last month but my friend had to work.

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heading to Okemo weekend of 3/20-hoping we see a snowstorm around that time-interestingly, we went to Mohawk (NW CT) yesterday and saw 3 inches from 3 intense squalls that hit us-crazy whiteout in one of them-made for great skiing with the fresh powder.  Luckiest day ever.

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30 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

heading to Okemo weekend of 3/20-hoping we see a snowstorm around that time-interestingly, we went to Mohawk (NW CT) yesterday and saw 3 inches from 3 intense squalls that hit us-crazy whiteout in one of them-made for great skiing with the fresh powder.  Luckiest day ever.

Yeah his year anything that softens the surface if you're south of I90 is a bonus. 

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3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I was going to go to Cooperstown last month but my friend had to work.

I hear you but like @gravitylover's suggestion. 

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Get on the train and head north. Amtrak out of Penn Station goes right to Rutland and Burlington. Take a few days and do it for yourself. No excuses, no friend bailed out, no nothin' just jump on the train and go.

Rutland has a great Amtrak station right downtown. That is our favorite area of Vermont, and Killington. Get up there and enjoy winter. While March is definitely more of a spring month for us, it is definitively a winter month up there most years. 

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10 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I hear you but like @gravitylover's suggestion. 

Rutland has a great Amtrak station right downtown. That is our favorite area of Vermont, and Killington. Get up there and enjoy winter. While March is definitely more of a spring month for us, it is definitively a winter month up there most years. 

Anthony, be aware, if you take Justin and Gravity’s excellent suggestion and if while/because your up there the NY Metro gets a significant snow, Feen will probably start a “ go fund me” page. As always ......

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