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Mid to Long Range Threats


Rjay
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On 2/27/2020 at 9:37 AM, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

70's mid month on? That would be about 25 degrees above normal. Maybe for a day or two but mid month on, I hope not. That would approach the March 2012 in Chicago, where they had 8 out of 9 days 80° or above. That was freaky and F'd up their trees big time. I could do without it.

March 1990 was ours, mid to upper 80s in March and then a one inch snowfall in April!

 

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42 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

For what? There will be enough cold air if we get a storm next week.

We’ll see, no one wants a big storm more then me, but it’s going to be thread the needle for the coast no matter how you look at it. The predominate low tracks have been so incredibly constant ever suppressed or to our north. Why would that change?

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53 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

For what? There will be enough cold air if we get a storm next week.

Not according to the Euro to start the event - and the changeover the Euro shows as the storm moves slowly offshore and changes the precip to snow as colder air is drawn in - well - good luck with that IMO.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

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15 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Not according to the Euro to start the event - and the changeover the Euro shows as the storm moves slowly offshore and changes the precip to snow as colder air is drawn in - well - good luck with that IMO.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

I think it will initially start as rain but as the storm phases and rides up the coast the rain could change to snow as the icon shows although I hate that model it does make sense.

E6C5B8F6-A03B-422D-9868-ADEF74FCF1B1.png

E7DEBD03-20B0-4500-AE43-1D1B3C9D1418.png

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6 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

If any other real meteorologist other than JB gets on board with it then I would watch. Right now I wouldn’t lose any sleep over it. Even if it did happen, we are right back into the the torch so why waste the taxpayers money plowing and salting when it will just melt a few days later. 

the other than list - I would add a few names to that - BUT I think we have enough qualified METS and other weather enthusiasts on this board to determine if March will deliver any snowstorm threats ………………..

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The 2/29/2020 12z GFS shows what would be a rare March snowstorm where Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia would pick up 8" or more snow. Since 1890, there have been just six such snowstorms.

The composite 500 mb and temperature anomaly data for those cases illustrates that the solution shown on the 12z GFS is very unlikely to verify.

GFS0229202012z.jpg

In addition, the historic data based on cases when New York City had less than 6" seasonal snowfall and Philadelphia had less than 2" seasonal snowfall through the end of February argue strongly against such a scenario. None of those cases featured the kind of snowstorm shown on the GFS.

In the end, the GFS scenario is likely a product of the significant cold bias that has plagued that model's extended range forecasts, a bias that has been particularly notable since the FV-3 core was introduced, delayed, and then implemented.

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2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 2/29/2020 12z GFS shows what would be a rare March snowstorm where Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia would pick up 8" or more snow. Since 1890, there have been just six such snowstorms.

The composite 500 mb and temperature anomaly data for those cases illustrates that the solution shown on the 12z GFS is very unlikely to verify.

GFS0229202012z.jpg

In addition, the historic data based on cases New York City had less than 6" seasonal snowfall and Philadelphia had less than 2" seasonal snowfall through the end of February argue strongly against such a scenario. None of those cases featured the kind of snowstorm shown on the GFS.

In the end, the GFS scenario is likely a product of the significant cold bias that has plagued that model's extended range forecasts, a bias that has been particularly notable since the FV-3 core was introduced, delayed, and then implemented.

Do they have any plans to work on the model to correct the cold bias ?

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