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Mid to Long Range Threats


Rjay
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3 hours ago, gravitylover said:

I'd love to get a look at that report and research. Is that something you can post here? With all the time I spend in the woods it's important and I try to read up on it as often as I can.

I can definitely share some stuff, especially individually (via direct message). There are a lot of different ideas in the tick world, but it is looking more and more like warm winters like this decrease blacklegged tick numbers. Our lab has done work on repellents, seasonality, infection, etc. We also do extensive work with mosquitos too. 

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14 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Apparently epidemiologists predicted an increase in Lyme cases a few years back based on the numbers of acorns....more acorns, more places for mice to nest, more ticks, if my understanding was correct. had a Lone star tick ( not native to this region ) hanging out on my back side for a couple days, though it was a scab ( they are tricky ) I was lucky I do not show signs of meat allergy, which this tick can trigger. This winter has probably been warm enough that both ticks and mice remained active ( I know the mice are; they got shocked the few cold days we had and I saw a few frozen in the shed, don't get me started on hantavirus...)

The acorn thing is interesting. We have not confirmed that in our own studies, but does not mean that the correlation is not there in other locations. What does seem to work is high precipitation during winter (in particular long duration snow cover) in helping increase the nymphal population in the following year.

 

13 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

:offtopic:

Ticks are a mid- to long-range thread haha! Not weather wise, but they are really connected to the weather.

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36 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

more like a lakes cutter with rain to Canada-not even close for anyone

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_27.png

Liquid all the way up to Plattsburgh on the GFS, which has a severe cold/east bias at this range. The models are like a pendulum for next week.....swinging back and forth between rain and rain.....

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11 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Seems any storm with any promise ends up plowing inland this winter yet somehow North Carolina is managing to get a snowstorm, we haven't gotten really a break on one storm all winter

areas north of NYC did ok on the 1/18 event-locally here I was all snow despite the storm being a cutter.   Having a great arctic airmass in place helped.

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15 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

:offtopic:

Well Lyme is certainly both a mid and long term threat, and it is most certainly related to the weather....now  back to your regularly scheduled upcoming cutter/rainstorm/ inland sleet slush / cloudy drizzle and mid 50's temps in the middle of Feb....and watch out for those ticks! 

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8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

areas north of NYC did ok on the 1/18 event-locally here I was all snow despite the storm being a cutter.   Having a great arctic airmass in place helped.

It was mostly snow even in the city but it changed to rain at the end and then was like 40 degrees all night so it was all gone by the next day

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2 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

The acorn thing is interesting. We have not confirmed that in our own studies, but does not mean that the correlation is not there in other locations. What does seem to work is high precipitation during winter (in particular long duration snow cover) in helping increase the nymphal population in the following year.

 

Ticks are a mid- to long-range thread haha! Not weather wise, but they are really connected to the weather.

Anecdotally I can say that I agree that the spring and early summers after low/no snow winters  have dramatically lower numbers of ticks and fewer of those are as aggressive as they are after big winters with long duration snowpacks. Last year was one of the lowest infestations in a long time, spring 2012 was even better and I think that was because it was drier.

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34 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Sure does, zippo for snow over the next 10 days, no cold air, horrible setup for Thursday, another rainstorm. The beat goes on.... 

Statement is actually half true. Yes no snow for our area but plenty cold enough so that it snows in Northern Alabama Georgia Tennessee North Carolina and South Carolina we just can't seem to get a system them with the right track to give us snow. If it can snow way down south in this horrible pattern it certainly can snow for us. pretty incredible how unlucky we are this winter

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12 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

This should put a wrap on the season. 

1583496000-6LaWCfDJoYE.png

 

1583496000-aqruhopfook.png

 

Until it swings through and then gets cold and then warms up. 10-15 is like a million years away. Just yesterday you posted day 10-15 cold on the eps. Take these long range outputs with a grain of salt whatever they show. 

But persistence is key and the warmth has won out.

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13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Until it swings through and then gets cold and then warms up. 10-15 is like a million years away. Just yesterday you posted day 10-15 cold on the eps. Take these long range outputs with a grain of salt whatever they show. 

But persistence is key and the warmth has won out.

 

The " colder " is there.

But that`s early March now and not late Jan. 

 

So 7 days of - 3 while Normal splits will be 42/32 is not frigid.

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1583496000-qgQr7rJPVb0.png

1583496000-aGhodwSWhsA.png

 

 

Oh well. 

 

 

 

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One thing I noticed some of the guys on here. If it shows warm and rain the next 15 days, we should accept it cause it’s for sure going to happen but if it’s cold and dry or cold and snowy it ain’t happening it’s 15 days away. It’s kinda biased and annoying for anyone reading through!

 

Anyway it’s 36 and cold in midtown feels like February just doesn’t look like it

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Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

One thing I noticed some of the guys on here. If it shows warm and rain the next 15 days, we should accept it cause it’s for sure going to happen but if it’s cold and dry or cold and snowy it ain’t happening it’s 15 days away. It’s kinda biased and annoying for anyone reading through!

 

Anyway it’s 36 and cold in midtown feels like February just doesn’t look like it

Well, who has been right more? There are seasons like this. Sometimes several in a row. Sometimes more than that IIRC ( I listed some years in another thread ). It would be the smart bet to go against any additional snow the rest of this year, but of course no one can say for sure. 

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