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Mid to Long Range Threats


Rjay
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14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

While the GFS is largely on its own with this idea, it should be noted that during winter 1972-73, Columbia, SC picked up 16.0" snow on February 9-10. That winter, just 2.8" snow fell in New York City and only a trace was recorded in Philadelphia.

No Don - Euro had this idea too

sn10_acc.conus.png

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16 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Agree, 2 footers are very rare in March. But March 2018 was a historic month for Nj. It was the 4th snowiest in New Brunswick history. How much did you have in the second storm? Nws had 9-11 in your area. That’s real good for March.

BC4B4E6F-61DD-4759-A325-8EE0F83B1413.png

36016E2A-D15C-4DBC-97C5-03533DC652C4.png

March of 18 was excellent here on SI...Had 25" total for month and 13.5" with the 21st-22nd event.

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1 hour ago, doncat said:

March of 18 was excellent here on SI...Had 25" total for month and 13.5" with the 21st-22nd event.

What did you measure for the first event in March? We got screwed here by substance with the CCB to my west. We got to 6 in Metuchen but crawled our way there. The following system more then made up for it 

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27 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i flew back from florida a few days after the march 21 storm and it looked like it never happened

Yeah. That snow was decently powdery for a late March event. I think by the end of the following day of the storm I had more snow left from March 7th lol 

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9 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah. That snow was decently powdery for a late March event. I think by the end of the following day of the storm I had more snow left from March 7th lol 

raw snowfall numbers don't tell the whole story. a foot of paste is going to have more impact than 18" of fluff 

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https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/02/16/north-america-on-the-long-term-16th-feb/
 

My final long range snowfall forecast for the season. Looks bleak for the Eastern US unfortunately. Similar negating factors as there have been all winter.

I also verified my seasonal forecast from November. I predicted an average season, that ended up being below average for the Northeast coast. The interior didn’t do much better either. 

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11 hours ago, forkyfork said:

i flew back from florida a few days after the march 21 storm and it looked like it never happened

The snow that night was amazing because I’m not used to seeing a foot of paste on everything-the paste snow events on the south shore are typically short lived and go to rain like 2/13/14. 2 days later it was almost gone. 

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On 2/14/2020 at 2:54 PM, Allsnow said:

Agree, 2 footers are very rare in March. But March 2018 was a historic month for Nj. It was the 4th snowiest in New Brunswick history. How much did you have in the second storm? Nws had 9-11 in your area. That’s real good for March.

BC4B4E6F-61DD-4759-A325-8EE0F83B1413.png

36016E2A-D15C-4DBC-97C5-03533DC652C4.png

Says 11.5, so be it. Good by March standards. Goos any time really. Think we aren't seeing any 2  footers for awhile.

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19 hours ago, Allsnow said:

What did you measure for the first event in March? We got screwed here by substance with the CCB to my west. We got to 6 in Metuchen but crawled our way there. The following system more then made up for it 

Had less than that really but it compacted so maybe not, but what was really frustrating were the folks here who told me I didn't know what I was talking about, that I was being a weenie, and it would come down hard eventually. As if I can't see what is outside my front door....

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3 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Had less than that really but it compacted so maybe not, but what was really frustrating were the folks here who told me I didn't know what I was talking about, that I was being a weenie, and it would come down hard eventually. As if I can't see what is outside my front door....

Haha. True. Really incredible gradient in our county for that storm. New Brunswick 10 Metuchen 6 Woodbridge 3. At one point we had light rain here as the CCB pounded to our west. We did have thunder snow and 2-3 inch rates when the event started.

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8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Haha. True. Really incredible gradient in our county for that storm. New Brunswick 10 Metuchen 6 Woodbridge 3. At one point we had light rain here as the CCB pounded to our west. We did have thunder snow and 2-3 inch rates when the event started.

Actually that isn't unusual. For example, the 2/610 storm left me with about 3, but folks in Metuchen had more ( the difference between 3 and 6 in very noticeable )and as you went further south it kept going up. My wife just unearthed some photos we have from around the Camden aquarium when the kids were little, the day after the blizzard. Incredibly the aquarium was open and the streets were quite clear; you can see the mountains of snow all along the Delaware river....

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13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Haha. True. Really incredible gradient in our county for that storm. New Brunswick 10 Metuchen 6 Woodbridge 3. At one point we had light rain here as the CCB pounded to our west. We did have thunder snow and 2-3 inch rates when the event started.

Even for the snowy 2010’s, March 2018 was a big outlier for late season snowfall.  ISP broke the March record with 31.9 inches of snow. The interesting stat is that ISP has had only 19.6 inches of snowfall for the last 2 winters. So more than 10 inches less than March 2018.
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2017-2018 0.0 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 65.9
2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8
2019-2020 0.0 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 M M 6.8
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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even for the snowy 2010’s, March 2018 was a big outlier for late season snowfall.  ISP broke the March record with 31.9 inches of snow. The interesting stat is that ISP has had only 19.6 inches of snowfall for the last 2 winters. So more than 10 inches less than March 2018.
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2017-2018 0.0 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 65.9
2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8
2019-2020 0.0 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 M M 6.8

We are in a snow drought no doubt. Hope its not a long term pattern. But I've seen that happen.

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4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

We are in a snow drought no doubt. Hope its not a long term pattern. But I've seen that happen.

Welcome to the all or nothing snowfall era. ISP has been either much above or much below since 2010. A midrange 20’s snowfall season has been missing.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30
Missing Count
2020-04-30 6.8 76
2019-04-30 12.8 0
2018-04-30 65.9 0
2017-04-30 39.3 0
2016-04-30 41.4 0
2015-04-30 63.7 0
2014-04-30 63.7 0
2013-04-30 46.9 0
2012-04-30 4.7 0
2011-04-30 55.3 0
2010-04-30 53.8 0

 

 

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Welcome to the all or nothing snowfall era. ISP has been either much above or much below since 2010. A midrange 20’s snowfall season has been missing.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30
Missing Count
2020-04-30 6.8 76
2019-04-30 12.8 0
2018-04-30 65.9 0
2017-04-30 39.3 0
2016-04-30 41.4 0
2015-04-30 63.7 0
2014-04-30 63.7 0
2013-04-30 46.9 0
2012-04-30 4.7 0
2011-04-30 55.3 0
2010-04-30 53.8 0

 

 

What a stretch on Long Island from 2010 to 2018. Crazy. 

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5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Absurd. We will never see a run like that again 

I think it runs in cycles. Seems to be a 30 year below average snowfall cycle to 20 year above average. If I am not mistaken 1920 to 1950 were not particularly snowy. 1950 to 1970 were very snowy and 1970 to 2000 were not too snowy. Of course the last 20 years may have been snowiest.

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I grew up in the 1960's...it was a great decade for snow...Christmas was white almost every year...then came the 1970's and 1980's...from the 1969-70 winter to the 1991-92 winter NYC had one winter with at least 30" of snow...1977-78 had over 50 inches and two storms over a foot...1979 had a snowstorm over a foot...1983 had an 18" snowstorm...1982 had the April Blizzard...since the 1992-93 winter there have been 14 years with at least 30" of snow and to many major storms to mention...in todays world with more moisture in the air snow droughts could be short but who knows for sure...after the snowy 1940's NYC had six winters with less than 20" of snow...the seventh year was 1955-56...it was even worse going into March until two major storms came during the third week of March...that period was much drier than today is...before the 1995-96 winter NYC had two years with a storm 20" or more...1888 and 1947...since 1996 the city has five...1996, 2006, 2010, 2010, 2016...2003 and 2011 just missed 20"...

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