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Mid to Long Range Threats


Rjay
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39 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

6Z GFS was less amped than 0Z and Euro looked a little less amped than 12Z, I know I'm, grasping at straws though, this isn't our storm, it never is this winter, at best it might be a front end snow for the interior portions of the forum   

Check out the Nam

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28 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

The current pattern does not support snow. If you like rain I think there will be plenty of it in the mid to long range. It's an active pattern.

Disclaimer: That does not mean we can't see a rogue snowstorm or two but I think if it happens it will be at the tail end of February or the beginning of March.

It snowed last night at my house & snow is expected again overnight.1-2 inches

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4 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I am not sure I agree with that. I think we start to warm up substantially (above normal) by mid April IMO. Overall I think April will wind up above normal this year. I guess we'll see.

it's the CFS so take it for what's it worth....(or any model 2 months out)

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16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Borrowed from JB's post this AM-but the CFS for April-here comes winter!

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cfs_monthly_all_avg_namer_t2m_c_anom_month_mostrecent_5699200(1).png

The climatological probability of April's have a temperature anomaly of 5 degrees or more below normal in the New York City area (including NJ and CT)  is low. At this point in time, the drivers of the April pattern cannot reliably be pinned down. It is perilous to assume an extreme outcome, especially from this far out.

For a reminder of the risks involved, one need look no farther than the forecasts from multiple outlets concerning a severely cold winter that were held through mid-January by which the fundamental winter pattern (strong AO+/EPO+ and related outcomes) were widely evident. Indeed, recognizing the pattern evolution and to its credit, BAMWX threw out its 1995-96 analog at the end of December and has done exceptionally well since then. That move highlights a separate risk that is often ignored: analogs can anchor one to a bad forecast if one holds onto them too long when there is little evidence that things are evolving toward those analogs.

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1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The probability of April's have a temperature anomaly of 5 degrees or more below normal in the New York City area (including NJ and CT)  is low. At this point in time, the drivers of the April pattern cannot reliably be pinned down. It is perilous to assume an extreme outcome, especially from this far out.

For a reminder of the risks involved, one need look no farther than the forecasts from multiple outlets concerning a severely cold winter that were held through mid-January by which the fundamental winter pattern (strong AO+/EPO+ and related outcomes) were widely evident. Indeed, recognizing the pattern evolution and to its credit, BAMWX threw out its 1995-96 analog at the end of December and has done exceptionally well since then. That move highlights a separate risk that is often ignored: analogs can anchor one to a bad forecast if one holds onto them too long when there is little evidence that things are evolving toward those analogs.

yep know when to hold em and when to throw them.   When models backed off the late Jan pattern change about a week out, that's when I threw in the towel personally.

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2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The climatological probability of April's have a temperature anomaly of 5 degrees or more below normal in the New York City area (including NJ and CT)  is low. At this point in time, the drivers of the April pattern cannot reliably be pinned down. It is perilous to assume an extreme outcome, especially from this far out.

For a reminder of the risks involved, one need look no farther than the forecasts from multiple outlets concerning a severely cold winter that were held through mid-January by which the fundamental winter pattern (strong AO+/EPO+ and related outcomes) were widely evident. Indeed, recognizing the pattern evolution and to its credit, BAMWX threw out its 1995-96 analog at the end of December and has done exceptionally well since then. That move highlights a separate risk that is often ignored: analogs can anchor one to a bad forecast if one holds onto them too long when there is little evidence that things are evolving toward those analogs.

Honestly JB should not being throwing out maps like this so far in advance IMO. We are talking April which is almost 2 months away.

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21 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Honestly JB should not being throwing out maps like this so far in advance IMO. We are talking April which is almost 2 months away.

To average 5 degrees below the current base mean temperature for April (1981-2010), April would need a monthly mean temperature of 48 degrees. Not even April 1982 achieved such cold despite the record cold early in the month. The last time that happened was 1975. Statistically and historically, the probability of the CFSv2 and JB verifying with such cold in the NYC region is very low.

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6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

To average 5 degrees below the current base mean temperature for April (1981-2010), April would need a monthly mean temperature of 48 degrees. Not even April 1982 achieved such cold despite the record cold early in the month. The last time that happened was 1975. Statistically and historically, the probability of the CFSv2 and JB verifying with such cold in the NYC region is very low.

Any preliminary thoughts on spring/summer temps and precipitation??

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10 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Any preliminary thoughts on spring/summer temps and precipitation??

From this vantage point, spring is looking to be somewhat milder than normal, but a lot more variable than the winter has been, in my view. Parts of Canada may be cooler than normal, especially central and western Canada. Of course, things could still change. Precipitation could be above normal in the region, especially early in the spring.

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9 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I know it is a ways out there but do you think we are headed for a hot summer?? I have seen this mentioned by a few meteorologists already including Larry Cosgrove.

A lot depends on the evolution of ENSO. A hot summer is plausible, but so are other outcomes if El Niño conditions try to redevelop. 

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