Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Mid to Long Range Threats


Rjay
 Share

Recommended Posts

Mt. Holly Updated AFD discounts the EURO solution late week:

SO WHAT COULD HAPPEN THAT ULTIMATELY INFLUENCES SENSIBLE WEATHER  
IN THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THIS WEEK? WELL, IT SEEMS LIKELY  
THAT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE FIRST EJECTING SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD  
OF RAIN (AND PROBABLY SOME SNOW IN THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW  
JERSEY ON SUNDAY NIGHT). FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE  
OF THE EJECTING TROUGH SHOULD TREND SURFACE TEMPERATURES UPWARD  
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD, SO EXPECTING SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE FAIRLY  
TAME, EVEN IN THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE  
VIRTUALLY ALL RAIN BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS  
SLOW TREK THROUGH THE AREA. BY MONDAY EVENING, THE GREATEST  
POPS ARE SOUTHEAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN  
QPF DURING THIS TIME FRAME, AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY  
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, AIDED BY ANOTHER WEAK PERTURBATION IN  
THE SOUTHWEST MIDLEVEL FLOW. THOUGH CHANCES ARE LOWER,  
PRECIPITATION MAY NOCTURNALLY MIX WITH SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST  
ONCE AGAIN.  
 
AS THE SECONDARY PERTURBATION MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY  
EVENING, PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DROP TUESDAY NIGHT AND  
WEDNESDAY AS A TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  
THIS IS GENERALLY WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE-SCALE  
DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO IMPACT THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.  
HOW FAST THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND HOW THE UPSTREAM  
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION APPEAR QUITE DIFFERENT AMONG  
OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE  
NORTHERN-STREAM SYSTEM IN EASTERN CANADA AND MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED  
WITH THE UPSTREAM KICKER, AND THIS LEADS TO A LIFTING SURFACE  
LOW WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN A WARM/WET  
SYSTEM THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREA. MEANWHILE, THE  
GFS/CMC HAVE THE REVERSE APPEARANCE IN THE LARGE SCALE, LEADING  
TO A MUCH FARTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THE EJECTING SURFACE LOW FROM  
THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. THE RESULT IS A COLDER SYSTEM FOR OUR  
AREA, WITH RAIN ON THURSDAY MIXING WITH/CHANGING TO SNOW FOR THE  
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY  
MORNING.  
 
THE RESULTING FORECAST IS COLDER (GIVEN A FAIRLY DECENT MODEL  
TREND IN THAT DIRECTION) BUT FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS GIVEN  
THE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES WITH TEMPERATURES, TIMING, AND ULTIMATE  
PRECIPITATION TYPE. I ALSO BROADENED THE PERIOD OF POPS INTO  
FRIDAY FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS. FIRST, THE LARGE TIMING  
UNCERTAINTIES ALREADY EXISTING AMONG THE MODELS SUGGEST  
COLLECTIVE PHASE ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE. SECOND, THE KICKER SYSTEM  
MAY GENERATE A SLUGGISH SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION AS IT DIGS  
SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN U.S. ON FRIDAY. THUS, I DISCOUNT THE  
ECMWF'S RATHER DRY LOOK OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE  
AREA.
WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW THE LARGE-SCALE PHENOMENA TREND IN  
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS, AS A LARGE NUMBER OF OUTCOMES APPEAR  
POSSIBLE IN OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT  
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT (ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NON-WINTER WE  
HAVE HAD SO FAR), BUT THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS THAT COLDER  
SOLUTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE LATE-WEEK SYSTEM.  
 
NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET BUT COLDER AS HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST.  
  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's so hard to get snow to the coast. Depressing.

I am sitting at a corporate event and not one person here misses the snow. Everyone I spoke to said that they never want to see snow again. And these are all scientists who understand climate change. They just hate the snow. So I popped in here to read Anthony’s rants about lack of snow...

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

GFS in a span of 4 runs goes from supressed to our south to an inland track with temps hitting 50 for the region, I'm so done with this winter 

Was very easy to call this rain, just follow the pattern and what countless other events have been doing all season. It's rain. Maybe Syracuse and Adirondacks can get a nice event, or the Ohio Valley. Just won't be us until the Pacific jet slows down, SE ridge can get squashed, and/or the NAO cooperates. It just won't happen. I couldn't care less what some 180 or 240hr model shows until those factors change.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

53 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Was very easy to call this rain, just follow the pattern and what countless other events have been doing all season. It's rain. Maybe Syracuse and Adirondacks can get a nice event, or the Ohio Valley. Just won't be us until the Pacific jet slows down, SE ridge can get squashed, and/or the NAO cooperates. It just won't happen. I couldn't care less what some 180 or 240hr model shows until those factors change.

Anything over 100 hours is fantasy but the pattern sucks. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

GFS in a span of 4 runs goes from supressed to our south to an inland track with temps hitting 50 for the region, I'm so done with this winter 

When the euro is on our side , it busts but when it's not on our side it doesnt bust.

What an area we live in.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

When the euro is on our side , it busts but when it's not on our side it doesnt bust.

What an area we live in.

6Z GFS was less amped than 0Z and Euro looked a little less amped than 12Z, I know I'm, grasping at straws though, this isn't our storm, it never is this winter, at best it might be a front end snow for the interior portions of the forum   

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...