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Mid to Long Range Threats


Rjay
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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Hopefully, this just turns out to be a 2 year thing. That’s how it has worked out since 2010. But if we don’t see a change as soon as next winter, then it could be an extended stretch. 
 

09-10....10-11....record -AO/-NAO....Colder and snowy

11-12..................Raging +EPO..........Warm low snowfall 

12-13..................Great February especially eastern sections...warmer winter

13-14....14-15.....record -EPO...built further east into +PNA 2nd winter...cold and snowy

15-16..................Super El Niño...warm and snowy

16-17.....17-18....Warm and snowy La Niña 

18-19....19-20.....Warm and less snowfall...ridge stuck north of Hawaii with persistent cutter and hugger storm tracks

Nice post! We can only hope. 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the spring into early summer pattern evolution will be important. This pattern during the summer would be just like 2010 to 2012.

We are likely screwed next winter too with models showing a nasty La Niña.  Perhaps though stronger Pac La Niña forcing might make things better than last winter and this in an odd sort of way 

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3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

There's no real reason not to, every threat gets worse and worse, every pattern change gets delayed and delayed. It may just not happen this winter. I'm sure it will snow again but I doubt we get a good pattern. 

Not to mention that March is 26 days away and that is one extra day that normal! ;-). I’m excited to get up to Killington in a few short weeks. 

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34 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Not to mention that March is 26 days away and that is one extra day that normal! ;-). I’m excited to get up to Killington in a few short weeks. 

Yea I feel I need to go somewhere at some point this winter to see snow but Killington is too far thats why I wish the snow line actually would at least push down to the Catskills.

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12 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea I feel I need to go somewhere at some point this winter to see snow but Killington is too far thats why I wish the snow line actually would at least push down to the Catskills.

Too far, you're kidding right? Why do so many people think that anything outside their regular routine is too far to drive. I know I'm on the other side of that, I'll hop in the car to drive to Burlington to have a beer with friends, I'll go to Ellicotville to go mtn biking and I just drove to The Keys because it's easier than flying and renting and stuff. 2.5-3 hours seems like a nothing little ride...

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12 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea I feel I need to go somewhere at some point this winter to see snow but Killington is too far thats why I wish the snow line actually would at least push down to the Catskills.

We’re going to get snow soon I promise you. I would even watch the baroclinic gradient after the second wave on Thursday. It could push the gradient south enough that the next wave at least ends as snow Friday night with the low pressure trending way south of us. Also this weekend that bowling bowl is looking promising that could drop 3-6 if everything goes well. Winter is far from over, though it has been feeling like that the last 48 hours or so. Gfs also has it very active next week and on. 
id like to point out that this weekends storm is sandwiched between the 2 high pressures so the ceiling can’t be higher than a 3-6 maybe 4-8 tops but most likely lower than that because of shredding from both highs pushing dry air as the low does try to develop.

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This period continues to show promise in the M/A , N/E.  The 1st waves will run out east and pull the barroclinic zone east.

 

How far east ?

How far North ? 

 

That will get sorted over the next few days, but LP should be off the Delmarva this weekend and we will have a chance to snow inside a very hostile pattern. 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ne-snow_24hr-1292800.png

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44 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

GFS has a cold bias in the LR so that's why we get these cold/snowy runs that never verify

Some of the ens are hinting at the boundary slipping south of our area after the 15th. The Pv will be in a better position and the AO dropping from uber strength. We get a better cold press and knock the southeast ridge down in return. Do we believe it? I wouldn’t bet my house on it....

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41 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

 

 

 

This period continues to show promise in the M/A , N/E.  The 1st waves will run out east and pull the barroclinic zone east.

 

How far east ?

How far North ? 

 

That will get sorted over the next few days, but LP should be off the Delmarva this weekend and we will have a chance to snow inside a very hostile pattern. 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ne-snow_24hr-1292800.png

Yup, right at the end of the February 8-11 window i have been on for days. Our one shot. After that shades close until late February. 

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24 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Some of the ens are hinting at the boundary slipping south of our area after the 15th. The Pv will be in a better position and the AO dropping from uber strength. We get a better cold press and knock the southeast ridge down in return. Do we believe it? I wouldn’t bet my house on it....

 

Yeh, the EPS takes the heights centered over SCAN 

 

1581400800-wPgWI6vmSQc.png

To N/L by day 12 and beyond.

 

Until that get`s inside 10 days, I will not bite.

1582070400-wj5zVSuzWdU.png

 

 

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3 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

Yeh, the EPS takes the heights centered over SCAN 

 

1581400800-wPgWI6vmSQc.png

To N/L by day 12 and beyond.

 

Until that get`s inside 10 days, I will not bite.

1582070400-wj5zVSuzWdU.png

 

 

We have seen this modeled for months. I forget who posted it, but both the GEFS and Euro ENS have been too cold at all levels. the GEFS much worse, but both have been very cold biased, showing lower than normal heights over the NE which never materialized.

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