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Mid to Long Range Threats


Rjay
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47 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is false

Euro use to be good 5 days out before the upgrade. 

OP runs beyond 120 hrs are never really great with storm details. That’s why the EPS means are often used 126 to 240. But even then, they mostly show skill with things like AN or BN temperatures and the 500mb pattern. A  Euro advantage is the great ensemble system that often shows when a long range OP run is an outlier among its ensembles. That why a super amped OP solution beyond 120hrs often doesn’t match the EPS mean. The GFS really doesn’t have this relationship with its ensembles. So they can both often turn out to be incorrect.

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3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We are going into a severely positive AO and NAO pattern along with a PNA tank and a SE ridge, I don’t believe any model showing a coastal snowstorm in the midst of such an anomalously horrible pattern. A -EPO/-WPO isn’t going to help you 

 

SE ridge backs down a little after day 12.

But the -EPO is still displaced W so the trough axis end up over the UMW. 

 

 

 

1581876000-1TU519s10nA.png

 

New England  could turn cold here, but chances are that ends up warmer in the M/A. 

 

1581919200-PFTBl4mlad8.png

 

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21 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

Great , so there will be 2 feet in Killington  and not 3.

 

It`s a NNE pattern was the point. 

 

1581595200-HcJOELfZuQc.png

 

Honestly the models have been showing the snow line pushing down to CNE for weeks now and that hasn't even been happening. This is just a pathetic winter almost everywhere until we see otherwise

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17 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Honestly the models have been showing the snow line pushing down to CNE for weeks now and that hasn't even been happening. This is just a pathetic winter almost everywhere until we see otherwise

 

Killington has 127 inches of snow so far this year. They average 250 inches a year and they are probably on their way to N with the pattern in front of them. 

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1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I keep hearing the pacific jet keeps crashing the +PNA

what does this mean exactly? how long has I been this way? what type of pattern change would need to happen for it to stop?

It keeps killing the pna ridge from amplifying into western Canada. So it’s harder for the storms to turn up the coast. But overall the pacific has been a hot mess for two years now. 

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30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yep, everytime a +PNA ridge tries to form the PAC jet crashes into it and knocks it right down 

This needs to be pinned. Second winter in a row of this crap. Cue the 'Oh but the second half of March looks good for a pattern change' aka more cold rain and white rain for the metro in March and April who wants that.

 

Summer and swimsuits at this point, let's just get it over with!

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8 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

cutters with brief cold shots behind them 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png

No surprise since the ridge axis has been stuck north of Hawaii for 2 winters now. The million dollar question is how much longer this most recent stuck weather pattern lasts.

A945D1BB-68DA-4E1F-A009-94CB6AE1521B.png.f067c6f7c2529d0bbd2bdeb65ccff1f0.png

8F3DD8AF-9E9D-437B-922C-1C54EE314F53.png.adc2e896c1a153e006154c1dfd5fbc9e.png

 

 

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Just now, bluewave said:

No surprise since the ridge axis has been stuck north of Hawaii for 2 winters now. The million dollar question is how much longer this most recent stuck weather pattern will last.

A945D1BB-68DA-4E1F-A009-94CB6AE1521B.png.f067c6f7c2529d0bbd2bdeb65ccff1f0.png

8F3DD8AF-9E9D-437B-922C-1C54EE314F53.png.adc2e896c1a153e006154c1dfd5fbc9e.png

 

 

if the 50/50 isn't as strong this spring/summer we'll roast

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33 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

cutters with brief cold shots behind them 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png

Only chance at snow would be front end slop or a weak wave between cutters. Unfortunately, beautiful days like today and tomorrow are probably over for a while. Looks more 40’s and rain going forward 

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32 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

what's causing it though? when was the last time it happened?

It happened all last winter. The pacific jet is just very fast around the globe. We need to slow it down but unfortunately it hasn’t happen. We have done better in March because the wave length shorten. Even when we get a some pna help out west it’s more of a ridge then what we really need. 

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9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

People are already giving up on the 2nd half and March ? LOL

Lol you too were just about ready to throw in the towel after this past weekend's headfake. It can break even the most optimistic weenie. Resorting to a name change though to change our mojo though, that I approve of

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3 minutes ago, romba said:

Lol you too were just about ready to throw in the towel after this past weekend's headfake. It can break even the most optimistic weenie. Resorting to a name change though to change our mojo though, that I approve of

I'm trying everything lol

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Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

what other winters in the past have we seen this? just curious this is new to me

more curious whats causing it

I would need to go back and look. The Pv being so strong and mjo in warm phases isn’t helping.

97-98 had a similar pac jet 

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs possibly goes into 7. We need it to move along to have a good March. 

I don’t currently think we get much help from the mjo this month or the next. The warm waters are just helping convection fire in the wrong phases. 
 

Weeklies keep this Niña type pattern going well into March. There are weeks where the boundary slips south but definitely no deep winter pattern in sight.

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3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I would need to go back and look. The Pv being so strong and mjo in warm phases isn’t helping.

97-98 had a similar pac jet 

Hopefully, this just turns out to be a 2 year thing. That’s how it has worked out since 2010. But if we don’t see a change as soon as next winter, then it could be an extended stretch. 
 

09-10....10-11....record -AO/-NAO....Colder and snowy

11-12..................Raging +EPO..........Warm low snowfall 

12-13..................Great February especially eastern sections...warmer winter

13-14....14-15.....record -EPO...built further east into +PNA 2nd winter...cold and snowy

15-16..................Super El Niño...warm and snowy

16-17.....17-18....Warm and snowy La Niña 

18-19....19-20.....Warm and less snowfall...ridge stuck north of Hawaii with persistent cutter and hugger storm tracks

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