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Mid to Long Range Threats


Rjay
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2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

It may be real and it's somewhat promising every model has it but I'm sure the depiction (temps, intensity, strength etc) will dramatically change depending on what the 3 storms before it do

The 1st two SW `s are wet but upon exiting drags the barroclinic zone east in time for the weekend.

 

The 3rd wave is colder, but how much colder ? Not known yet. 

 

But wave 3 is your oppo. 

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2 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

The 1st two SW `s are wet but upon exiting drags the barroclinic zone east in time for the weekend.

 

The 3rd wave is colder, but how much colder ? Not known yet. 

 

But wave 3 is your oppo. 

this will end up being mostly liquid for the immediate NYC metro - the Euro fantasy Sunday MECS - will it show the same solution at 12Z ? Good Luck - most indicies unfavorable - pesky southeast ridge etc. etc.

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2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

this will end up being mostly liquid for the immediate NYC metro - the Euro fantasy Sunday MECS - will it show the same solution at 12Z ? Good Luck - most indicies unfavorable - pesky southeast ridge etc. etc.

Cmc is a snow event for this weekend

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3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

All 3 models are a snow event right now but the line is very close to the city and we all know how the trends go... but this may be the best chance

Expectations are pretty low at this point as anything that looks somewhat good 5-7 days out will look ugly within a couple days. 

But, it is definitely something worth noting for now...

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29 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

correct me if I am wrong, but, wouldn't the first two storms need to occur first (affect the atmosphere in their own ways) before the models can handle the weekend storm? at this point wouldn't the models just be guessing what happens this weekend?

I'd say it's more than guessing but I agree I wouldn't trust anything it shows until the next two storms are nailed down 

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

They have been horrible after 5 days. Not sure what is going  on with the models this winter.

No consistency within each model. Blow it all up and start from scratch. Baby steps- lick your finger and hold it up to the wind and take it from there

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