MJO812 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Euro has a little snow for Sunday for the area 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 As usual the GFS looks best at the end of the run. It has been meaningless at that stage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Just now, mattinpa said: As usual the GFS looks best at the end of the run. It has been meaningless at that stage. NCEP sets it up that way so weenies always have hope...."hey folks, the 384 hr GFS has a HECS!" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Assuming February is another solidly warmer than normal month with below average snow, there has only been one instance in weather history, where Dec, Jan and Feb were all warmer than normal with below average snow, then went on to have a cold and snowy March, 06-07, In all the other cases, March was another warmer than normal month with below average snow In the case of winter 2006-07, February 2007 was much colder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: In the case of winter 2006-07, February 2007 was much colder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. dramatic flip that year....went from torch to freezer in the space of a few days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: dramatic flip that year....went from torch to freezer in the space of a few days February 2007 won the wasted cold award. Our one big storm on Valentine’s Day turned into an ice fest. February 2017 was much more productive for snowfall at over 10 degrees warmer. Goes to show the importance of the right storm track. Islip February 2007....27.1....-5.7....4.2” February 2017....37.8....+5.0...14.7” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: dramatic flip that year....went from torch to freezer in the space of a few days Had blocking that year, which remains the biggest thing lacking in this pattern. I'm still a bit taken aback about just how badly the solar minimum ideas failed this year. Wasn't the biggest believer in them, but this is pretty a spectatular faceplant which I certainly wouldn't have expected. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Just now, NittanyWx said: Had blocking that year, which remains the biggest thing lacking in this pattern. I'm still a bit taken aback about just how badly the solar minimum ideas failed this year. Wasn't the biggest believer in them, but this is pretty a spectatular faceplant which I certainly wouldn't have expected. yep back to the drawing board on that one.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Per gfs if that the LP next weekend goes much further west we can track convection maybe. That’s a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 I'm not even going to let the 18Z GFS reel me in to think next weeks storm could be remotely interesting in our area although it does have some support from the CMC in terms of the WAA precip possibly being wintry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Inland weenies rejoice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Thats a good run on 12z GFS for N and W with everything shifting south and colder. Dicey thermals though so things could easily change with this being 5 days out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Thats a good run on 12z GFS for N and W with everything shifting south and colder. Dicey thermals though so things could easily change with this being 5 days out. We really need the epo to press this further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Solid dump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 1 hour ago, Animal said: Solid dump What a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 1:32 PM, Brian5671 said: NCEP sets it up that way so weenies always have hope...."hey folks, the 384 hr GFS has a HECS!" I believe that's programmed in to automatically occur every three days. It keeps suckers like us looking even in patterns like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 2 hours ago, Animal said: Solid dump This is the map that counts sleet as snow. The more accurate snowmaps that don't count sleet as snow, look nothing like this. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 4 hours ago, Snow88 said: Inland weenies rejoice Dude you really need to just move. You're NYPD right? Head for the north Bronx or Westchester. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 On 1/27/2020 at 2:48 PM, Doorman said: GUIDANCE---- day 5 verification...who needs to model hug????? NEXT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 I think some of us are getting to caught up in what the models are showing instead of what the pattern is doing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 25 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I think some of us are getting to caught up in what the models are showing instead of what the pattern is doing. Ya think? For many the hobby has morphed into modelology rather than meteorology. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 GFS is even colder for wave #2 with snow even for the city. This is getting interesting here! 114hours away 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 39 minutes ago, Doorman said: day 5 verification...who needs to model hug????? NEXT Lol Tommy the models show snow after the 4th. They show snow for Thursday buddy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 I'm north of 84 and when both Euro and GFS show a period of possibly significant frozen precip only 5 days out I'm paying attention. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 14 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: GFS is even colder for wave #2 with snow even for the city. This is getting interesting here! 114hours away The models might be adjusting to the MJO being in the COD and the EPO. We shall see. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Latest discussion from NWS Albany about mid-late week potential if anybody cares. Wed night into THU...A full latitude positively tilted mid and upper level trough moves into the Central Plains with a strong mid and upper level jet along the eastern portion of the trough over the eastern CONUS. Initially over running pcpn could break out Wed night with snow or a mixture of pcpn types. For now, we continue snow and rain as the main ptypes but the GEFS/ECMWF are indicating some sleet and freezing rain may be possible. Also, some light to moderate snow accumulations are possible. We will continue to wait for a non cacophonous tune from the medium range deterministic and ensemble guidance. Lows in the mid teens to 20s are likely Wed night with mainly mid 20s to mid and and upper 30s on Thu. Thu night through Friday...A large amount of spread continues in the guidance here with the 12Z ECMWF indicating the mid and upper level longwave trough becoming negatively tilted with the primary sfc wave remaining west of the northern Appalachian Mtns, which would support a warmer solution, while the 12Z CMC and some of the NAEFS/GEFS are similar, the latest WPC shows support with an an occluded front moving through. The 12Z GFS has a coastal wave moving from the Delmarva Region to eastern Long Island Friday morning with a decent snow event for a large portion of the area. WPC does not favor this scenario, and based on the muddled and chaotic medium range guidance we are not confident in the 12Z GFS either. The 12Z GFS has a much flatter mid and upper level trough too. Needless to say, a moderate to heavy pcpn system with rain/snow or mixed pcpn is possible. It could also be windy depending where the primary cyclone tracks. Temps still look to run above early FEB climatological normals. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 IMO and I could be wrong so someone with more knowledge can correct me but IF the GFS and to some extent the Euro wind up being right then there has to be some kind of change going on with the overall patten that would make things more conducive for winter weather here especially along the coast. It will be either that or pure luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 6 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Latest discussion from NWS Albany about mid-late week potential if anybody cares. Wed night into THU...A full latitude positively tilted mid and upper level trough moves into the Central Plains with a strong mid and upper level jet along the eastern portion of the trough over the eastern CONUS. Initially over running pcpn could break out Wed night with snow or a mixture of pcpn types. For now, we continue snow and rain as the main ptypes but the GEFS/ECMWF are indicating some sleet and freezing rain may be possible. Also, some light to moderate snow accumulations are possible. We will continue to wait for a non cacophonous tune from the medium range deterministic and ensemble guidance. Lows in the mid teens to 20s are likely Wed night with mainly mid 20s to mid and and upper 30s on Thu. Thu night through Friday...A large amount of spread continues in the guidance here with the 12Z ECMWF indicating the mid and upper level longwave trough becoming negatively tilted with the primary sfc wave remaining west of the northern Appalachian Mtns, which would support a warmer solution, while the 12Z CMC and some of the NAEFS/GEFS are similar, the latest WPC shows support with an an occluded front moving through. The 12Z GFS has a coastal wave moving from the Delmarva Region to eastern Long Island Friday morning with a decent snow event for a large portion of the area. WPC does not favor this scenario, and based on the muddled and chaotic medium range guidance we are not confident in the 12Z GFS either. The 12Z GFS has a much flatter mid and upper level trough too. Needless to say, a moderate to heavy pcpn system with rain/snow or mixed pcpn is possible. It could also be windy depending where the primary cyclone tracks. Temps still look to run above early FEB climatological normals. They forgot to add that the GFS is Also just an inferior model lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 3 hours ago, Rtd208 said: IMO and I could be wrong so someone with more knowledge can correct me but IF the GFS and to some extent the Euro wind up being right then there has to be some kind of change going on with the overall patten that would make things more conducive for winter weather here especially along the coast. It will be either that or pure luck. It will come down to the pac and epo location. The models are currently backing away from the -pna. So now temperatures are closer to normal with the -epo. The boundary will be close so good luck getting a idea on what’s going to happen this far out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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