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Mid to Long Range Threats


Rjay
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14 minutes ago, Barman49 said:

Looks like quite a few more to the west. Looking on my phone can't see how strong the LP are though.  

Edit: zoomed in better not many under 990 that are at BM or west. Not sure this helps us much.

 

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Also numerous leaning well East.

Time to break out the snow storm magnet.

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Also numerous leaning well East.
Time to break out the snow storm magnet.
Yes but a little more left leaning compared to 12z. Although like I said looks like more NS interaction but the strength of the LP seemed to actually be less than the west ones at 12z.

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37 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

This still looks like a long shot for the coast. Hudson Valley on north still in the game IMO

Yea because of the temps issue I get where you are coming from although I think if it's west enough to snow in the Hudson Valley it will be strong enough to bring the snow line down to I95. We are far away from that solution right now. 

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3 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

The "threat is x days away" self-assurance is fallacious. The responsible trough is amplifying over the west as we speak. You don't have until the would-be start time to see wholesale synoptic changes.

The northern stream energy didnt even come into the mainland. We have seen changes within model runs a day out this winter and especially with Miller A storms.

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Seems like we need several things to go right for decent accumulating snow near NYC because of the marginal temps...hence it would be wise to keep evs weenie hopes in check. Basically, it's a no go unless there is a very strong low bombing out south of the area, taking a benchmark track. A beautifuly placed 990 mb low ain't going to cut it...nor will a 970 mb low tucked into the coast. I'm holding out some hope for perfection, but the odds are not on our side. 

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The little low that the models have ahead of the coastal is causing a weakness in the trough for the main low which allows the storm to escape without coming up the coast.  Combine that with some left over energy in the west and also a progressive trough and you will have yourself a non event.

 

I think it is over but you never know  with all these vorts flying down .

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7 hours ago, Snow88 said:

How so ? If it comes further west everyone will get in on the action.

It's not as simple as saying, it comes west it snows. First off look back at nyc snowstorms, how many times did they not have any good HP to the north or cold air in place before a system? Heck NYC dew pts aren't even below freezing on saturday, so you can't even evapo cool down. Meaning you're solely relying on dynamics to bring cold air in. West doesn't mean you snow either. Track further west also means stronger easterly flow out ahead of system and stronger sw flow in the mid levels. Look aback at the 18z run of eps, you had 23 members show over .5 of qpf, yet only 7 member show anything over 2". Thats gotta tell you something right there odds are heavily not in your favor not even with a further west track. 

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12 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The little low that the models have ahead of the coastal is causing a weakness in the trough for the main low which allows the storm to escape without coming up the coast.  Combine that with some left over energy in the west and also a progressive trough and you will have yourself a non event.

 

I think it is over but you never know  with all these vorts flying down .

Glad you are aware the storm is going to miss. 1st step in recovery. Mt Holly morning afd mentions possibly grazing coastal nj...but a fish storm.

 

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