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Mid to Long Range Threats


Rjay
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The main pieces of energy have yet to be well sampled. The models are just guessing at this point. I will start noticing trends from 00z overnight to 12z tomorrow and not before. And I'm not rooting for snow. Hoping that it doesn't snow actually. But realistically Miler A setups shouldn't be taken seriously or have white flags waived until you start seeing definitive trends within 72 hours of the storm. Just my opinion anyway.

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13 minutes ago, bobjohnsonforthehall said:

The main pieces of energy have yet to be well sampled. The models are just guessing at this point. I will start noticing trends from 00z overnight to 12z tomorrow and not before. And I'm not rooting for snow. Hoping that it doesn't snow actually. But realistically Miler A setups shouldn't be taken seriously or have white flags waived until you start seeing definitive trends within 72 hours of the storm. Just my opinion anyway.

The models aren't "guessing." In fact, there's a relatively solid consensus among the major globals.

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Just now, RDRY said:

The models aren't "guessing." In fact, there's a relatively solid consensus among the major globals.

There isn’t a consensus, just a series of off the coast solutions. The solutions themselves have significant variation. 

And no, they’re not just guessing, but they’re far less accurate than they’ll be once samples on land. 

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52 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

If I remember correctly the 2010 day after Christmas blizzard was written off until the day before it hit. It’s not over till it’s over.  

Never sleep on a Miller A, lol.  It was written off as a major snowstorm 2 days before it hit, with most solutions showing the storm going out to sea, some missing completely and some showing 1-2" for the 95 corridor and a few to several inches for coastal NJ and LI and SE New England, whereas 3-4 days before the event there was absolute model mayhem with complete misses and blizzards (especially on the Euro).  And then the epic 12/25 0Z runs all showed a huge snowstorm, about 36 hours before the event started.  Thread below.  

I was in Charlotte visiting family on Christmas Eve night after everyone went to sleep causally surfing the web and watching the model runs and every model showed a bomb for our area.  Best Christmas present I could get, lol.  I even convinced my wife and then 16 year old son that we should leave Charlotte after Christmas dinner so we could be home for the blizzard and we left around 7 pm getting caught in the snow a bit for the first 3-4 hours of the drive with several inches on even the interstates, but traffic was light and we outran the snow by about Durham and the rest of the ride was fine.  I got a couple of hours of sleep, played soccer the morning of 12/26, as usual for a Sunday, then sat back and enjoyed an incredible storm.  

Craig Allen had this to say after seeing the 0Z suite that night: "Good data or bad, garbage in/garbage out, wish for what you do or do not want, no matter what has been said before, from feast to famine to feast....the most amazing thing has happened tonight. EVERY SINGLE COMPUTER MODEL IS NOW IN LINE FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM/PSBL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATE SUN INTO SUN NGT. NEVER IN 35+ YEARS OF DOING THIS HAVE I SEEN SUCH CHAOS LEADING UP TO A SOLUTION LIKE THIS."

 

 

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1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

There isn’t a consensus, just a series of off the coast solutions. The solutions themselves have significant variation. 

And no, they’re not just guessing, but they’re far less accurate than they’ll be once samples on land. 

They seem to have similar evolutions regarding northern stream interaction -- the northern energy lags behind on all of them.

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I think we have to give this to Thursday for a final outcome. That said a lot has to go right for this to be something major so I'm still leaning OTS. I really am not interested in a 997 low at the benchmark with rain & snow showers.

Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk

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1 minute ago, Barman49 said:

I think we have to give this to Thursday for a final outcome. That said a lot has to go right for this to be something major so I'm still leaning OTS. I really am not interested in a 997 low at the benchmark with rain & snow showers.

Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk
 

Agree a weak low at or east of the benchmark is rain/snow showers. This needs to be sub 990 and tracking inside the BM for the majority of the subforum to have a chance.  Until I see that this is a non event.

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