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Mid to Long Range Threats


Rjay
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1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

The odds are higher for a major rainstorm this weekend then a snowstorm. Regardless it should be an active weekend (if the storm occurs) with multiple weather hazards regardless of what form the precipitation takes. We'll see what happens over the next 24-36 hours which I think is going to be the key timeframe to start honing in on a solution. 

Replying to my own post above, just for the record I am NOT saying a snowstorm isn't possible this weekend just the odds favor a rainstorm due to the marginal air mass.

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3 minutes ago, Mersky said:

I guess you missed my post yesterday were i said everything had to be perfect for this to be a snowstorm. That said you wrote it off days ago.  And your timeframe you have been hyping looks cold and dry. Congrats

“Worry about temps later” :rolleyes:

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4 minutes ago, Mersky said:

I guess you missed my post yesterday were i said everything had to be perfect for this to be a snowstorm. That said you wrote it off days ago.  And your timeframe you have been hyping looks cold and dry. Congrats

His timeframe looks good right now but we all know how long range has verified. 

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

That not a cold dry look with a mean trough over Chicago and ridge off west coast. Even sine hints of blocking 

Unfortunately it’s not a very cold look either despite the 500mb look.  Just slightly below normal with above normal in Canada and the northern tier.  Positive EPO has voided Canada of arctic air

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7 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Unfortunately it’s not a very cold look either despite the 500mb look.  Just slightly below normal with above normal in Canada and the northern tier.  Positive EPO has voided Canada of arctic air

Still a better airmass then what we have been dealing with. The epo looks to go negative closer to the 9/10th as we get more of a gradient look. But yes it’s not super cold as it modifies a bit dumping out west first. 
 

the vortex has really killed the cold in Canada. 

 

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4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Unfortunately it’s not a very cold look either despite the 500mb look.  Just slightly below normal with above normal in Canada and the northern tier.  Positive EPO has voided Canada of arctic air

What's not a very cold look ? The gfs , gefs, and eps love his timeframe.

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I was thinking 4 days is when models will home in on solutions, but they might already be homed in.  Looks whiffy.  However that last 2 events, which were never really interesting for these parts, moved in 100 mile increments right up until game time and outcomes were west and warmer.  Different scenario, but point is don’t buy anything esp. in marginal conditions until game time.  

If I had to bet, this whiffs or rains.  Too many variables have to align for the snowy solutions.

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The Euro being so consistent with being ots has me thinking that's probably what happens. I know the bias of holding energy back but unless it changes in the next day or so I think this is the outcome. Of course now that I say this it'll come west at 1pm.

Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Still a better airmass then what we have been dealing with. The epo looks to go negative closer to the 9/10th as we get more of a gradient look. But yes it’s not super cold as it modifies a bit dumping out west first. 
 

the vortex has really killed the cold in Canada. 

 

Yea it looks like we go -PNA/RNA for awhile

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Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

last night it was a direct hit. now its east?

seems like what the models do this far out

watch the next run correct back west? im no expert but lurking the forum so many years how many times does that happen?

Happens alot with Miller A storms

Storms usually come back west when the northern stream gets  sampled.

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21 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

I rather this storm go OTS honestly. I think it will bode well later on as it intensifies and it’s wave break causes a block right over GL as models have been showing off and on.

agree - this will be useful down the road

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

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26 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

I rather this storm go OTS honestly. I think it will bode well later on as it intensifies and it’s wave break causes a block right over GL as models have been showing off and on.

It times well with the next system. Without a block the fast flow lends credence to a fish storm so that's what's in the offing this weekend.  There isn't a whole ton of support for the snowy solution now save a couple runs here and there for this weekend.  Let the fish have at it, and we can feast on the next one.  

 

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48 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

If I remember correctly the 2010 day after Christmas blizzard was written off until the day before it hit. It’s not over till it’s over.  

It's over. Boxing day at least had models showing a hit a few days before. Then they showed a miss and then came back on board as a hit a couple days before

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The models have shown everything and anything at one point with nearly every storm this season and last, so saying 'the models showed a big hit previously and now show nothing, this is where we want to be!' is foolish.

 

What amazes me is that we are supposedly within the GFS wheelhouse but it still changes so often. At least the Euro has been pretty consistent. It sees what it sees, until some new data causes an adjustment and it changes. The GFS seems to change every 6 hours on a whim. Maybe if it were twice a day this wouldn't seem as big of an issue to me.

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3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

To add insult to injury 12z GFS takes low on the 7th OTS although obviously its way to early to be looking at that. In general I think GFS is a lousy model and they should limit it to 240 hours like the rest. What is the point of going out farther on an operational? 

The GFS has been consistent in showing a big system for then, and the airmass looks a lot better than the one forecast for the 1st.

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