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Mid to Long Range Threats


Rjay
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30 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Flow is fast and there's no blocking so it's very unlikely this keeps shifting west. 

A miss to the east is more likely imo. Surface on GFS indicates possible paste job but bc it's flying & bombing too late New England is more likely to score. 

I doubt it shifts east again - I would think its going to be either side 50 -75 miles of where it is now and lock into that solution by late Wednesday when all the key players are onshore out west for better sampling …………..

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Well, I'm liking the fact that all 4 major global models at 0Z are at least now showing a pretty significant to major coastal storm this weekend (mostly Saturday late morning through the evening for the Philly-NYC region), but only one of them is showing significant snowfall.  The GFS shows a snow to rain storm with significant snowfall along and NW of 95, while the UK shows a monsoon of a rainstorm with 1-3" of rain (close to 1" well NW to almost 3" near the coast), and the Euro and CMC show a major storm a couple hundred miles off the coast, with just some modest rains near the coast, but huge rains offshore (1-2"), so the precip is certainly there with all 4 models.  

But we're about 5 days out and obviously much can change between now and the event, especially with the main players being well offshore of the NA continent.  As many have said with borderline antecedent temps this is a serious "thread the needle" scenario, so a major snowstorm is unlikely, but we all know powerful storms like this can essentially "generate" their own cold air via dynamic cooling with heavy precip rates and sometimes turn a rainstorm into a pastebomb of a snowstorm.  So, nobody needs to buy milk and bread yet (or a canoe), but this one is worth tracking and maybe it's our time to get lucky...or not.  The one thing that's starting to look likely is the potential for heavy surf and possibly minor tidal flooding (fortunately it won't be a full moon).  

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I am a novice and I totally understand that there are many moving parts that must come together for this weekend to work out well for snow lovers.The way the winter has gone with these models = the only time I want to be in the bulls eye is on the day of the storm. The models that have shifted "way" West or OTS could easily show us different solutions in 24 or 48 hours. Lets see what the later runs today have to say, with 4 days to go yet A LOT can happen.

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4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Eps snow mean ticked down. The idv have hits but lots of warm solutions. The airmass continues to be a huge issue. 

Euro is an outlier right now but temps continue to be an issue like you said. It's a shame because we are at the end of January and temps shouldn't be an issue with a Miller A storm. Hopefully the models dig the northern stream in and everyone cashes in.

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The odds are higher for a major rainstorm this weekend then a snowstorm. Regardless it should be an active weekend (if the storm occurs) with multiple weather hazards regardless of what form the precipitation takes. We'll see what happens over the next 24-36 hours which I think is going to be the key timeframe to start honing in on a solution. 

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7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro is an outlier right now but temps continue to be an issue like you said. It's a shame because we are at the end of January and temps shouldn't be an issue with a Miller A storm. Hopefully the models dig the northern stream in and everyone cashes in.

I tried to tell you and @Mersky but once again it was like talking to a brick wall. The airmass greatly improves after the 5th. We will have chances in that timeframe. 

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3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I tried to tell you and @Mersky but once again it was like talking to a brick wall. The airmass greatly improves after the 5th. We will have chances in that timeframe. 

The “snowiest” model (GFS) has backed down to a non event now at 6z. ICON, CMC, UKMET, Euro want nothing to do with the weekend and for good reason

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53 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I'm going to pronounce this storm the Allsnow storm .

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_41.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_42.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_43.png

88 and AllSnow,  the GFS showing a storm and the time frame is over a week away ? = Although I would love for this to verify = sorry guys I aint buying it until it is MUCH closer to the event ( as the sky has fallen more than snow has this winter  ). Lets get past this weekend first

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31 minutes ago, Animal said:

DOA for this weekend.

You never toss the towel on a Miller A days out. Remember when the Euro showed alot of snow 72 hours out and even the same day in December for the area. You are dealing with a Miller A which is notorious for NW shifts.

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Still 4 days away 

 

Just now, Snow88 said:

You never toss the towel on a Miller A days out. Remember when the Euro showed alot of snow 72 hours out and even the same day in December for the area. You are dealing with a Miller A which is notorious for NW shifts.

Dude, will you ever learn?? Hit the ignore button on people like this and don't reply to them. 

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