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Mid to Long Range Threats


Rjay
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9 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Eps

 

Courtesy of SNE thread

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need it below 985 in that green circle a weaker system wont be dynamic enough to create enough cold air to bring down to the lower layers - 850's are adequate - also it can snow if the surface is a couple degrees above 32 and accumulate if the intensity is strong enough has happened before.....

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3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

need it below 985 in that green circle a weaker system wont be dynamic enough to create enough cold air to bring down to the lower layers - 850's are adequate - also it can snow if the surface is a couple degrees above 32 and accumulate if the intensity is strong enough has happened before.....

We need another 50-75 Miles jog west and if we get that with a 980 millibar storm this will be a blizzard! Some of the models are painting 980 and below so it’s possible

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20 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

How much snow have you guys had down there in your area?

We're at least 2 feet below normal up here in the snow belt.

18.8 inches Eastern Orange County in HV.

When you say you're two feet below normal, don't you average 200-300 inches per year in the Tug Hill? I'll take your bad years.

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3 hours ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

I’ve always been curious about our chances without vs. with blocking/neg NAO. Considering how tough it is to get a good setup, is it really that comparatively tough to get significant snows without a ‘good’ setup? Especially considering how many factors are involved in a good setup. 

If you have a western ridge and eastern trof positioned correctly you don’t really need the NAO to be negative.  

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2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

18.8 inches Eastern Orange County in HV.

When you say you're two feet below normal, don't you average 200-300 inches per year in the Tug Hill? I'll take your bad years.

I was in the Tug Hill last winter. The winters have sucked so bad, the economy is being greatly affected by it there. Partially lost my job as a result of it.

Now I'm in the North Syracuse burbs where I average 130 to 140 inches a year.

More than half of the 45 inches of snow I have received so far came in November. 20 some inches total over December and January, with many thaws has made it very ugly and frustrating for winter enthusiasts up here as well.

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4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

If you have a western ridge and eastern trof positioned correctly you don’t really need the NAO to be negative.  

Yup. Pretty sure the 2/14/06 storm or the 2017-18 storms happened during at least not a great NAO. It’s just a big mess with the number of vorts in the trough coming through so the models will have a rough time resolving everything for another few days. 

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Just now, jm1220 said:

Long Beach probably has the same as Anthony. We've been getting an extra 1-2" on each event this season up here vs the south shore. And Ant has the heat island working somewhat against him too.

I do to tbh. But the smaller events I still manage to get some accumulation. I just feel like he didn’t get the chance to measure the smaller events 

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1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

A bit more west and bombing out earlier would be ideal but yea too much more west and we are going to get the boats ready and the way this winter is going that wouldn't shock me.

going to be interesting how the EURO reacts to whatever data is injected into it over the next couple of hours...…….

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