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Mid to Long Range Threats


Rjay
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3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

My gut tells me this phases but comes too far inland. Hope only the first part is true. 

I doubt this is a cutter - especially with the Euro farthest east now my guess this is a mix of every precip type across the area

 

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A record ridge out West could mitigate the fast northern stream to some extent. We just don’t want the track so far west that it hugs the coast too closely. 

 

i think this being a capture scenario makes an inland snowstorm less likely

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9 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i think this being a capture scenario makes an inland snowstorm less likely

 

4 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

The GFS shows some snow, navgem shows a snowstorm, and cmc showed a blizzard just yesterday. Honestly 5 days out this is where I want to be at this time.

I agree - I think an 18 Z GFS track is as close to the coast as we want it with faster intensification - would be favorable for more frozen heavier precip 850s are reasonable gfs_T850_us_21.png

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Just now, NEG NAO said:

 

I agree - I think an 18 Z GFS track is as close to the coast as we want it with faster intensification - would be favorable for more frozen heavier precip

we need it to phase at the right time. total crapshoot 

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1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Why can’t u guys think positive and say my gut is telling me this is just right a phaser with a benchmark track 980 low

Gut instincts are mostly worthless and "positive" is relative, in that positive for the vast majority of folks is that this never turns into anything frozen or just doesn't happen. I feel like this is an alternative universe here. My gut tells me this ain't our winter, and this storm won't be any different. But that isn't worth much....

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17 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Gut instincts are mostly worthless and "positive" is relative, in that positive for the vast majority of folks is that this never turns into anything frozen or just doesn't happen. I feel like this is an alternative universe here. My gut tells me this ain't our winter, and this storm won't be any different. But that isn't worth much....

Yeah, weenism is a minority club alright... 

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4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Good news

but since the trend is your friend we don’t want it to start crashing west now. Too soon lol. 

If your concern is that we end up with a cutter, you shouldn't worry. Trough is not sharp enough for such a solution unless we see marked changes at the upper levels in the next couple of days. If this thing phases at the optimum time I would expect a BM track or just inside.

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