White Gorilla Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 I am curious how the ridge axis out west would sharpen better given the strong Pacific flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 I definitely wouldn't get my hopes up for this weekend. It really does look it will be wide right with maybe light snow/rain in area. I think we need to wait until 2nd week in February to see something significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 That L in the lakes is actually helping kick this to the BM. The timing of that feature is important, too slow and LP hugs without blocking, too fast and it punts it OTS. I don`t look at the lakes low as a 100 % negative. You can all S stream in late Jan, you just need it to deepen in the right spot. It`s just a very dicey set up thought and it all has to go right. And when was the last time that happened ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, HeadInTheClouds said: I definitely wouldn't get my hopes up for this weekend. It really does look it will be wide right with maybe light snow/rain in area. I think we need to wait until 2nd week in February to see something significant. Starting to get late...we're now out to the 2nd week in Feb...time starting to run out especially with the lack of cold. Lack of cold can work in Jan/early Feb-later, not likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: I am curious how the ridge axis out west would sharpen better given the strong Pacific flow @bluewave Pointed this out yesterday, you have a raging fast, record PAC jet circling almost the entire globe, blasting right into the west coast. Any +PNA that tries to form can’t sustain itself, that strong jet just crashes right into it and knocks it down as fast as it pops up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: Starting to get late...we're now out to the 2nd week in Feb...time starting to run out especially with the lack of cold. Lack of cold can work in Jan/early Feb-later, not likely Yes it is but it's not like we haven't seen back loaded winters before. We can still get plenty thru mid-march, it's still winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: @bluewave Pointed this out yesterday, you have a raging fast, record PAC jet circling almost the entire globe, blasting right into the west coast. Any +PNA that tries to form can’t sustain itself, that strong jet just crashes right into it and knocks it down as fast as it pops up Luckily that`s gone by day 11. The flow buckles as the heights rise near the Aleutians. The flow has Arctic influence not Pacific after day 10. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Starting to get late...we're now out to the 2nd week in Feb...time starting to run out especially with the lack of cold. Lack of cold can work in Jan/early Feb-later, not likely Models are showing better cold air moving in around February 6th. Hopefully we can cash in on that. Looks like a much better chance that something can work out the end of the first week into the second week of February. This weekend, as you and most people here have pointed out, is a true thread the needle that has only a very slim chance of working out. Really looking towards that 2nd week of February for a much better chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 990 low in a perfect spot on the Ukmet and this is the result. Putrid airmass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: 990 low in a perfect spot on the Ukmet and this is the result. Putrid airmass Better improvement from 0z. Its not going to take much to get a good snowstorm this weekend. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: Better improvement from 0z. Its not going to take much to get a good snowstorm this weekend. Anth, it has to be perfect in this pattern. Seriously. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, PB-99 said: Anth, it has to be perfect in this pattern. Seriously. How is this pattern bad ? A strong storm would be good for the area. People always worry everytime we track Miller A storms. It's hilarious.. It's all about timing 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 21 minutes ago, snowman19 said: @bluewave Pointed this out yesterday, you have a raging fast, record PAC jet circling almost the entire globe, blasting right into the west coast. Any +PNA that tries to form can’t sustain itself, that strong jet just crashes right into it and knocks it down as fast as it pops up Yes I saw that. That makes it very difficult for phasing to happen earlier in the East given the trough alignment, unless other factors kick in I guess. Even with a raging Pacific, how does the NAO going negative potentially compensate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 15 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Better improvement from 0z. Its not going to take much to get a good snowstorm this weekend. With marginal temps, we will need a very dynamic and deep low in the right spot to generate its own cold air. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: How is this pattern bad ? A strong storm would be good for the area. People always worry everytime we track Miller A storms. It's hilarious.. It's all about timing You need northern stream interaction with this storm. On the 12z UKIE, as has been discussed above, there was none. Its 40 and rain as RJay described above. Too much northern stream, it gets crushed. Not enough, and its a nice warm system with cold rain. There is no real arctic or cold air present before the storm comes up the coast, no real HP in play either. So what Allsnow/RJay/PB-99 are saying are correct, you need a thread the needle type storm here if you want snow. And its even worse of a chance for me down south. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, White Gorilla said: Yes I saw that. That makes it very difficult for phasing to happen earlier in the East given the trough alignment, unless other factors kick in I guess. Even with a raging Pacific, how does the NAO going negative potentially compensate? It slows the storm down and allows it to bomb out. Unfortunately, it does little for the airmass concerns. You would need a perfect ULL track/close off to allow dynamics to overcome bl issues. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 9 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Models are showing better cold air moving in around February 6th. Hopefully we can cash in on that. Looks like a much better chance that something can work out the end of the first week into the second week of February. This weekend, as you and most people here have pointed out, is a true thread the needle that has only a very slim chance of working out. Really looking towards that 2nd week of February for a much better chance. I agree. As I mentioned a week ago, that timeframe holds the most promise. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 It’s not impossible but it’s thread the needle here. It needs a perfect track with a 975 or lower for this to be an all snow event in New York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: How is this pattern bad ? A strong storm would be good for the area. People always worry everytime we track Miller A storms. It's hilarious.. It's all about timing The H is moving off, not building in. You will need to get kicked east by GL LP and deepen in the perfect spot just to cool the column. That`s not easy Anth, this is not coming into a cold dome of air / and or blocking. It`s not an easy pattern for the coast at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 12 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It slows the storm down and allows it to bomb out. Unfortunately, it does little for the airmass concerns. You would need a perfect ULL track/close off to allow dynamics to overcome bl issues. In other words a lot has to go right to make this work and very little has to go wrong to make this not work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: I agree. As I mentioned a week ago, that timeframe holds the most promise. You will have a - EPO and LP/ LP`s running along an Arctic Boundary. Those work here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: In other words a lot has to go right to make this work and very little has to go wrong to make this not work. Exactly. Not impossible but long list of negatives that argue against it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, PB-99 said: You will have a - EPO and LP/ LP`s running along an Arctic Boundary. Those work here. Yes. Legit arctic airmass with lots of activity 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Even with low odds for next weekend, there is hope to ride on. I agree that for now, snow chances are more favorable deeper into Feb as climo and trends in recent years would dictate. Fingers crossed for everyone here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, NEG NAO said: Very close but good to see a solution close to the coast. Long week of tracking ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 I agree 100% @Allsnow temps are a huge issue. If this is solely southern stream driven, no help from northern stream odds are it's a rainstorm for coastal plain. The way that changes is if the low bombs out and dynamically cools. The HP that scoots offshore just prior to the storm flips the winds to the south and that rots the BL for the coastal plain. If the northern stream gets involved that would be better, but you need the right track of that as well. Has to swing south of this area to pull the cold air in for a snow event along coastal plain. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 12 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I agree 100% @Allsnow temps are a huge issue. If this is solely southern stream driven, no help from northern stream odds are it's a rainstorm for coastal plain. The way that changes is if the low bombs out and dynamically cool. The HP that scoots offshore just prior to the storm flips the winds to the south and that rots the BL for the coastal plain. If the northern stream gets involved that would be better, but you need the right track of that as well. Has to swing south of this area to pull the cold air in for a snow event along coastal plain. Is the MJO projected to go to into phases 1-2 by then? How much is the pattern MJO driven currently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Navy would be a nice solution First legit threat for the coast but there will be more ahead if the gefs and eps are correct . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 14 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Is the MJO projected to go to into phases 1-2 by then? How much is the pattern MJO driven currently? The main forcing is currently in 8 but we still have convection in 6. The +AAM and Pv orientation has negative effects on the response from p8. We will be in 2/3 to start February. With some strat hits we should get into a better airmass by the 5th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now