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Mid to Long Range Threats


Rjay
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A "KU" snowstorm is a storm of the kind featured in Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini's research on Northeast snowstorms. They wrote a two-volume work on the storms:
https://www.amazon.com/Northeast-Snowstorms-1-2-Set/dp/1878220640
Excellent & very informative. I bought them years ago and still look at them from time to time.

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31 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I did, too. They're a great resource.

Great photos too; the section on near misses is most fascinating; one shows an ice storm the likes of which most have been nothing short of epic ( a miss, I guess, because it wasn't snow ) and the images of people trying to scale icebergs in Manhattan after the 93 superstorm, where ten inches of snow, sleet and freezing rain crippled the area....

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27 minutes ago, Barman49 said:

LP is way too close to the coast with no cold air it's rain for most.

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Not hanging my hat on any one solution so far out.  I just look at these and say "OK".  I will start paying much more attention come Wed and even then with cautious interpretation. 

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27 minutes ago, Barman49 said:

LP is way too close to the coast with no cold air it's rain for most.

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The icon is making this all southern stream with no northern stream involvement. This helps in really warming temps along the coast despite a decent track.

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The icon is making this all southern stream with no northern stream involvement. This helps in really warming temps along the coast despite a decent track.
Yeah. The track would work this time if year if there was some cold air in place. Relying on the storm to track perfectly and bomb to make its cold air is really threading the needle. Like you said especially with no NS interaction.

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Just now, Barman49 said:

Yeah. The track would work this time if year if there was some cold air in place. Relying on the storm to track perfectly and bomb to make its cold air is really threading the needle. Like you said especially with no NS interaction.

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Great post. It’s not impossible but with no northern stream you’re relying strictly on dynamics to get it done. 

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Great post. It’s not impossible but with no northern stream you’re relying strictly on dynamics to get it done. 
Thanks. We've seen some of these work out for us in the past. I'm just hoping based on the last two winters our luck hasn't run out for these types of systems. We all need at least a MECS to calm us down I think.

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15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Great post. It’s not impossible but with no northern stream you’re relying strictly on dynamics to get it done. 

With no -NAO the southern stream alone wouldn’t get this up here anyway.  The ICON scenario isn’t really logical.  In order to get a solely southern stream system like 2/83 or 12/09 the NAO has to be fairly negative 

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4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

With no -NAO the southern stream alone wouldn’t get this up here anyway.  The ICON scenario isn’t really logical.  In order to get a solely southern stream system like 2/83 or 12/09 the NAO has to be fairly negative 

This! The setup is really horrible. No -NAO, no -AO, no 50/50 low, +EPO, +WPO, a positively tilted trough, and a marginal, weak +PNA that isn’t really poleward. When you combine this with the fact that there is a very putrid Pacific airmass over us with no arctic high locked in over SE Canada to funnel the cold down, good luck getting a snowstorm in the metro area this weekend 

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I think we'll see a late phase where parts of eastern New England and especially eastern Canada will benefit.

Although impressive the PNA spike will likely not be enough to counteract the lack of Atlantic blocking. The flow is way too fast and unless things change next 2-3 days I don't think we'll score.

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8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This! The setup is really horrible. No -NAO, no -AO, no 50/50 low, +EPO, +WPO, a positively tilted trough, and a marginal, weak +PNA that isn’t really poleward. When you combine this with the fact that there is a very putrid Pacific airmass over us with no arctic high locked in over SE Canada to funnel the cold down, good luck getting a snowstorm in the metro area this weekend 

The setup isnt terrible at all. It's all about timing. NAO based off the tellies are going negative around this time. 

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