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Mid to Long Range Threats


Rjay
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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

That’s 850’s. The surface temps very iffy. 983 bombing low on a cold and snowy bias model that only gets about a inch in nyc! That should tell you a lot about the airmass. 

That's caused also  because of the lack of precip less then 1/2 inch - this GFS precip map is not accurate with a 983 just off the coast

gfs_apcpn24_us_25.png

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4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@NEG NAO @NYCweatherNOW
Incorrect. Nyc gets close to .45 and has temps in the upper 30’s. The airmass is putrid 

04D407A3-2971-44A9-8CA4-74C921D1CD85.png

2A5E8E9D-05C0-4050-8B3E-66A2F5AFCF91.png

and just west of there much less - plus this output this far out is not worth anything especially on that model. a borderline airmass can still produce snow this time of year - its still way to early to get into specific types and amounts

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From Mt. Holly afternoon AFD:

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE FOR THE WEEKEND.   THE DISCREPANCY LOOKS TO BEGIN THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW   THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE GFS OPENS   THIS LOW UP AND PULLS IT EAST FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A SECONDARY   PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THAT ABSORBS THE   ENERGY AND TAKES IT FURTHER SOUTH. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR   A COASTAL LOW FORMING AND TRACKING NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF   HAS ONLY A WEAK LOW HEADING TOWARDS BERMUDA. THE CMC CURRENTLY   FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION. MODEL PREDICTABILITY LOOKS LOW HERE   THOUGH AND HAVE KEPT POPS CHANCE AT BEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE   EXTENDED.  

Upton AFD:

BY NEXT WEEKEND, MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF   THE NEXT TROUGH, AND THUS DEPTH OF SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT AND TRACKS   REMAIN UNCLEAR. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP NEXT   WEEKEND, WITH CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION LOW AT THIS TIME.    

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2 minutes ago, Mersky said:

One thing you will NEVER see meteorologists do is post a 159 hour temp profile from ANY model. I know you think you know your stuff but clearly you still have a lot to learn. And gfs thermal profiles are awful to begin with. 

Furthermore, you have a high pressure sliding east that is adding insult to injury to a already awful airmass. Yes, lots to learn from your posts last weekend on how this split flow look will be cold enough for the northeast. It’s only 40 degrees in Toronto currently. How are temps in North Carolina?

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Just now, Barman49 said:

I like your posts but didn't it snow last weekend? It did by me.

Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk
 

I was referring to a conversation in the January thread about how this past week temps would not support snow. More specifically with the ULL yesterday. 

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10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

.12Z EPS 850s are fine throughout next weekend

850t.conus.png

These are the 2m anomaly along with the idv that show either a interior snow hit or late phase. If you go off the low location more then a few show a perfect track for the coast. So why doesn’t it show more hits? Imo it’s the airmass with a high sliding off the coast/lakes low/ and late phases with northern stream. We have a long list of things that point against snow for the coast. And even with some of the models that show hits it’s not 100% snow or we are depending on dynamics to overcome temps. 

73BE7BBF-2D57-44AF-94BD-39013F30A00D.png

F8F25FC4-A952-48BF-80FA-47544AEAB437.png

DEB46D19-5B9D-42C0-B9B8-610AA5848C4E.png

C4D638B5-2F9D-4956-9C2E-87E92DCF965B.png

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10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

These are the 2m anomaly along with the idv that show either a interior snow hit or late phase. If you go off the low location more then a few show a perfect track for the coast. So why doesn’t it show more hits? Imo it’s the airmass with a high sliding off the coast/lakes low/ and late phases with northern stream. We have a long list of things that point against snow for the coast. And even with some of the models that show hits it’s not 100% snow or we are depending on dynamics to overcome temps. 

73BE7BBF-2D57-44AF-94BD-39013F30A00D.png

F8F25FC4-A952-48BF-80FA-47544AEAB437.png

DEB46D19-5B9D-42C0-B9B8-610AA5848C4E.png

C4D638B5-2F9D-4956-9C2E-87E92DCF965B.png

Big red flag the ensembles are west of the op.  

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The airmass honestly isn't that bad. If you can get this under light precipitation, you can certainly cool the column in a more dynamic storm. Especially if you can an idea phase from the northern stream, it's always tough for things to align perfectly for us but it won't take all that much here to get a solid snowstorm out of this. 

gfs_T2m_contour_neus_26.png

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1 minute ago, mob1 said:

The airmass honestly isn't that bad. If you can get this under light precipitation, you can certainly cool the column in a more dynamic storm. Especially if you can an idea phase from the northern stream, it's always tough for things to align perfectly for us but it won't take all that much here to get a solid snowstorm out of this. 

gfs_T2m_contour_neus_26.png

exactly - this track is perfect for us on FEB 1st- 2nd too ! With cold enough air in the vicinity !

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