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Mid to Long Range Threats


Rjay
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Just now, NEG NAO said:

here is the 12Z ICON - timing is faster and weaker but still basically the same track as the GFS and CMC

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_45.png

ICON was classic benchmark. CMC coastal hugger, GFS just SE benchmark. You are right tho, all pretty similar. pretty good agreement at the development of a potent coastal storm this far out. Encouraging! 

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs has another big storm near the 7th. The pattern looks active  with the ridge finally in the west. The MJO also looks to stall in the COD.

the best place for the MJO is the COD in this type of pattern if you want an east coast snowstorm...……...

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12 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs has another big storm near the 7th. The pattern looks active  with the ridge finally in the west. The MJO also looks to stall in the COD.

Big storm … yeah. It's Gulf Coast evolution is straight out of an ice age.

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2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Wave spacing and the vortex killing the ridge out west on the euro. This doesn’t allow the northern stream to dive in. So the southern stream has to do it all on its own in a meh airmass. The ridge is just not as sharp as we need on the euro. 

It also takes longer for the euro to eject the sw energy 

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The Euro still might have the highest verification but it is a lot less consistent. It flip flops more than it used to it seems. Not saying it's wrong but it doesn't seem as consistent from run to run anymore. Maybe it's the pattern it's having issues with.

Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk

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39 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It also takes longer for the euro to eject the sw energy 

IIRC the old euro had a bias of hanging the sw back too long, only to correct later?  Seems like I remember that.

this storm has that sort of back and forth modeling we saw many times in the snowy years.  Probably won’t play out the same way:  gfs picks up on something early, euro agrees, then they both waver with the euro out underneath due to slow eject.  Then wham a nice euro run and everything else catches up.  Would be fun to track like the old days.

 

Edit just snow snow88 post.  Yeah...but I think the model has a new set of issues nowadays...i.e. it’s generally more erratic

 

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27 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Yes but it has sucked this winter. You cant deny it. Remember the past storms where it had alot of snow for our area ?

Ok Tony. Which model has a higher verification score? It gets really old when the board is hijacked by people like yourself who dismiss a model simply because they dont like what it shows. When the GFS shows a solution you dont like you call it the "Goofus". 

In any event, the Euro is an improved look from prior runs, but does not show a storm for our area. This should temper expectations for the time being. 

 

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13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Lots of uncertainty with low location on the eps. Only consistent is snow mean is less then 1 inch for the coast. The majority of the members are inland hits. 

E7BB2E3D-5C47-443F-ABB4-7B3A517425D9.png

I doubt next weekends storm is going to be a cutter

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1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

I doubt next weekends storm is going to be a cutter

I don’t think this will have a sharp ridge out west to turn the corner for a inland runner. But the airmass is bleh for the coast. The eps idv are either snowy hits for the interior or sne. 

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8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I don’t think this will have a sharp ridge out west to turn the corner for a inland runner. But the airmass is bleh for the coast. The eps idv are either snowy hits for the interior or sne. 

this is cold enough

gfs_T850_us_27.pngecmwf_T850_us_8.png

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