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Mid to Long Range Threats


Rjay
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7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Euro paints a more interesting picture. It also looks substantially better than what it showed 2 days ago. 

With a lot of luck something good could come out of this. 

what does everybody think the chances are of this verifying ? My prediction is slim to none and Slim just left town...……….

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

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7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

what does everybody think the chances are of this verifying ? My prediction is slim to none and Slim just left town...……….

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

I wouldn't say slim. Let's see where we are after this weekend. Pattern looks better as alluded by Coastalwx in the SNE thread.

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Just now, Snow88 said:

I wouldn't say slim. Let's see where we are after this weekend. Pattern looks better as alluded by Coastalwx in the SNE thread.

was he referring to SNE and or here ? - they can end up with a boat load of snow and we get zip...……...

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16 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

what does everybody think the chances are of this verifying ? My prediction is slim to none and Slim just left town...……….

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

EPS Idv have some hits around the 30th to 1st. The better look is around the 5th-6th when we have a colder airmass. 
 

I would say we have a chance but better shot inland.

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8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

was he referring to SNE and or here ? - they can end up with a boat load of snow and we get zip...……...

He thinks the pacific will be better than what it is now.  Of course we also need the cold. Having the MJO possibly go into 1 and 2 will help if it does go into those phases.

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13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

was he referring to SNE and or here ? - they can end up with a boat load of snow and we get zip...……...

And of course the opposite happens quite often too. Especially for areas N & W of the city. People only remember the ones SNE cashes in on. When their to far east and in the warmer air everyone forgets those, especially in southern coastal CT, RI and MA.

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Can`t get any closer to p8 than that

Verification for the previous 7 days

 

 

7-Day MJO index verification from the GFS

The GFS gets this into p8 for a day.

So let`s see if that happens and that idea was at least right as the wave is collapsing. 

They agree on the next 7 days that we are in the middle of the Null p 

 

Phase diagram of the MJO index from the operational GFS

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1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

maybe this one will happen!

Extremely marginal PAC airmass in place and that’s putting it nicely, no arctic high in SE Canada, +EPO, no strong 50/50 low, no -NAO block to stop it from becoming an inland runner/lakes cutter should it amp up....what could possibly go wrong??

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8 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

the place to be is on a fishing boat parked in the middle of that dark red area off the Monmouth County NJ coast - 30 miles or so:snowing:

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

 

Of course it will happen because I'll be in Florida for a Bar Mitzvah. As long as this isn't a coastal storm that runs all the way up the few days before so I have good weather for the drive down leaving here Thursday the 30th.

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1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Of course it will happen because I'll be in Florida for a Bar Mitzvah. As long as this isn't a coastal storm that runs all the way up the few days before so I have good weather for the drive down leaving here Thursday the 30th.

You wouldn't be missing much from the looks of that.....

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