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2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread


Kmlwx
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Evening AFD LWX disco update for tomorrow

Dry weather should start our day on Thursday with temperatures
in the 70s. Another threat for severe thunderstorms, higher in
the risk category to Enhanced Risk, will unfold around midday
and linger through the afternoon. Thursday`s severe activity may
be more so between 3pm and 6pm, rather than 6pm to 9pm like this
evening`s activity. Activity should be more earlier in the day.
The front to our north will be a trough that will meander to the
east during the day Thursday before a cold front approaches
Thursday night. CAPE values will increase above 2000 as
temperatures and moisture increase during the day. Wind shear
will also be present and could be more significant than this
evening`s activity. As a matter of fact, the threat for
tornadoes becomes more pronounced Thursday. Thursday could be a
very dangerous environment. We will to need monitor the
changing weather situation to determine the timing, coverage and
risk for severe weather Thursday.

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3 minutes ago, southmdwatcher said:

June 1 2012 was a Moderate Risk day in DC/Baltimore area for Tornadoes and SPC added hatched for TOR at 20z a busted forecast. Storms coming across WVA right now look early.

I wouldn't say busted looking at the reports

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20120601

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Latest discussion from SPC-

Quote

...Mid-Atlantic and vicinity...

Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon in a regime of prefrontal surface troughing and terrain-aided local lift across the western parts of the outlook areas. Activity then should move eastward while organizing in both strength and coverage, with additional development possible across a well-heated coastal plain. Damaging downdraft winds should be common, with some severe (50+ kt) gusts possible. A few tornadoes also may occur. The most-concentrated area of convective/severe potential still appears to be across a corridor from northern VA across the Delmarva Peninsula and southern NJ, in accordance with the 30%-wind/enhanced area. Much of this activity should occur in a field of height falls, and strengthening large-scale/mid-upper lift of mesoscale spatial coverage, ahead of the ejecting Ozarks/Ohio Valley vorticity field. The associated area of vertical motion has been supporting non-severe convection the past several hours across portions of southern/eastern KY, and will move over the surface trough and across a diurnally destabilizing, richly moist, weakly capped boundary layer today. As the favorable low-level air mass spreads northward up the Delaware Valley and NJ areas, a field of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (locally/briefly higher) should develop over lower elevations, amidst 40-50-kt effective shear magnitudes. Favorable speed shear will spread over the region as flow aloft intensifies, and any areas of relatively backed surface winds will yield enlarged low-level hodographs with 200-300 J/kg effective SRH. This supports an all-hazards supercell threat, with low LCL, from north-central VA eastward.

 

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36 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

How ironic would it be to have a D1 ENH and 10% tor, but we eind up with some generic tstorm line this afternoon in like central VA?

In this region replace ironic with typical.  These outlooks bust more often then winter events in this area.  Which is good and bad.  Bad being that (non weather) peeps are so accustomed to warnings that when a legitimate warning (and absolutely necessary action to protect life/property) occurs, no one will take it seriously.  Boy meet wolf. ;)

I wouldn't be surprised if there is less activity today then yesterday.  Does it mean we should let our guard down?  NEVER!

No doubt with soundings someone will score today, just don't expect it to be a widespread outbreak.

EDIT:  10% TOR, especially our area, is nothing to sneeze at! Don't forget to wear a mask! ;)

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

How ironic would it be to have a D1 ENH and 10% tor, but we eind up with some generic tstorm line this afternoon in like central VA?

I wouldn’t complain, the storm yesterday disintegrated and went south as well. Hopefully I’m just far enough north to get a little bit.

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