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2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread


Kmlwx
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3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Today is looking super lame at least at the current moment. More eggs into the tomorrow basket perhaps. 

     Yeah, I'm a bit surprised, and I think that SPC is too.    Latest HRRR still suggests that the convection firing near the I-81 corridor will still become a bigger deal further east in a few hours.

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3 minutes ago, high risk said:

     Yeah, I'm a bit surprised, and I think that SPC is too.    Latest HRRR still suggests that the convection firing near the I-81 corridor will still become a bigger deal further east in a few hours.

There's probably enough moisture to support a threat for storms (some strong maybe) past sunset. For the superstitious/non-scientific side of us - this could bode well for our odds to see stronger storms tomorrow. We just can't seem to string multiple days together - the area of focus always shifts a little bit day to day - even when it seems like we'll be bullseyed for days on days. 

I personally thought that earlier mesoscale discussion was VERY high probs for something that had not even developed yet - and didn't look insanely good on modeling. 

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10 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

There's probably enough moisture to support a threat for storms (some strong maybe) past sunset. For the superstitious/non-scientific side of us - this could bode well for our odds to see stronger storms tomorrow. We just can't seem to string multiple days together - the area of focus always shifts a little bit day to day - even when it seems like we'll be bullseyed for days on days. 

I personally thought that earlier mesoscale discussion was VERY high probs for something that had not even developed yet - and didn't look insanely good on modeling. 

      SPC Mesoanalysis shows the supercell composite here increasing to 8 here over the next couple of hours.     Given that and most of the CAMs showing convection developing by now, I'm assuming that's why they went with such high watch probs.      I'd think that the convection to the west should do better as it moves east into the better environment, but we'll see.

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4 hours ago, JakkelWx said:

I need everybody in D.C and the Delmarva to buy an industrial fan and strap it to a helicopter, and turn them all on at once so we can get a D2 MOD.

Here's my contribution!

And look at that, some showers showing up now with maybe a bit of Zeus'ing going on! ;)

Speaking of fans, we do have a bigass fan, 18' in the main hangar.  Had to run it nearly WOT due to humidity!

 

rwenstromhas.jpg

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53 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Nasty-looking bow heading into Clarksburg area.

 

36 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Yeah looking pretty bow'y, any reports from that guy? 

Nothing on CAD or our DOT feed. Really surprised. It came through Reisterstown as nothing but heavy rain. Radar looked a lot better than ground truth.

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404, severe not found. ;)  We were in a yellow box.

Torrential downpours, max wind 18 mph, some lightning and thunder.  Heavy thundershower is what we call it.

Tomorrow is the 3rd ENH for this area so far this year?  Can you call drizzle and fog enhanced?  Oh the moss is growing on three sides of our barn.  Now that is definitely enhanced! :)

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

Nothing on CAD or our DOT feed. Really surprised. It came through Reisterstown as nothing but heavy rain. Radar looked a lot better than ground truth.

Reflectivity looked great in that bow shape - but velocity scans were consistently underwhelming. I was struggling to find anything of severe magnitude even on the TDWRs. 

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