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2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread


Kmlwx
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To be honest - the parameters (and I know these don't necessarily guarantee anything) for today and tomorrow look about as good as any event we've seen this year so far. If we can get decently unstable tomorrow I could see it being a 10% tor day - especially given that text from SPC in the day 2. Very doubtful they'd introduce that until D1 though. 

I think a lot of areas will see storms this PM - the question is how severe they will be.

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1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

In EJ's world, we only hit these if they are billion-dollar disasters.  So, still due ;)

I'm always skeptical of severe in these parts of the country. We have so many things that can and do go wrong (terrain, CAD, etc.) that it's hard to get excited until the event is unfolding or right on top of you. Even the other week we had a DY1 ENH that was crapola.

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6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

To be honest - the parameters (and I know these don't necessarily guarantee anything) for today and tomorrow look about as good as any event we've seen this year so far. If we can get decently unstable tomorrow I could see it being a 10% tor day - especially given that text from SPC in the day 2. Very doubtful they'd introduce that until D1 though. 

I think a lot of areas will see storms this PM - the question is how severe they will be.

       Hard to argue with this.      I'm still more bullish for today than most, but I understand the question marks.    For tomorrow, the potential is real.    My only concerns are the weaker lapse rates (although they are now progged a bit better than earlier guidance) and potential weak sfc wind speeds (although the NAM nest seems to be weaker than some other models)

       I'd still prefer today's lapse rates with tomorrow's wind profiles, but good luck getting those two to align in this region.....

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3 minutes ago, high risk said:

       Hard to argue with this.      I'm still more bullish for today than most, but I understand the question marks.    For tomorrow, the potential is real.    My only concerns are the weaker lapse rates (although they are now progged a bit better than earlier guidance) and potential weak sfc wind speeds (although the NAM nest seems to be weaker than some other models)

       I'd still prefer today's lapse rates with tomorrow's wind profiles, but good luck getting those two to align in this region.....

And of course - knowing our area we will find a way to blank on both today AND tomorrow. Latest HRRR still looks good for storms this PM but with pretty garden variety intensity. 

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23 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

There are some PDS TOR soundings showing up on the NAM nest for both today and tomorrow :lol: 

The NAM nest reflectivity looks great for DC tomorrow - less so for @mappy. Taking the NAM nest at face value would put the bigger emphasis on tomorrow. 

eh, ill take whatever we get. 

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I think social science has led to the ref on numbers. They have been in many of their graphics for a while. We tend to always mention numbers ourselves ... a level one of five, etc. 

Figures I'm in Cape Cod. Enjoy the wedges. 

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10 minutes ago, Ian said:

I think social science has led to the ref on numbers. They have been in many of their graphics for a while. We tend to always mention numbers ourselves ... a level one of five, etc. 

Figures I'm in Cape Cod. Enjoy the wedges. 

Are you endorsing tomorrow as a potential legit event?

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11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Are you endorsing tomorrow as a potential legit event?

I'd guess upscale growth will be relatively rapid but it has some decent ingredients. As usual -- esp around here -- need to see how the morning plays out. Today actually looks relatively interesting so far. Maybe mapgirl will catch a tube. 

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3 minutes ago, Ian said:

I'd guess upscale growth will be relatively rapid but it has some decent ingredients. As usual -- esp around here -- need to see how the morning plays out. Today actually looks relatively interesting so far. Maybe mapgirl will catch a tube. 

It's always nice when you pop back in here. Miss the 2008/2012 type days. 

Fall can be really boring other than awesome weather around these parts - be nice if we could get some excitement. 

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16 minutes ago, Ian said:

I'd guess upscale growth will be relatively rapid but it has some decent ingredients. As usual -- esp around here -- need to see how the morning plays out. Today actually looks relatively interesting so far. Maybe mapgirl will catch a tube. 

go on...

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