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2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread


Kmlwx
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A snippet from the updated AFD from Mt Holly-

Hot and humid into the early evening hours ahead of an approaching shortwave. Showers and thunderstorms over central Pennsylvania will continue to track east, and additional storms will fire up ahead of that main area. Temperatures remain in the 80s to around 90 with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. As a result, surface-based CAPE values are up around 2000 J/kg across Delmarva and from 1500-2000 J/kg across southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania. Across Delmarva and southern New Jersey, DCAPE values are up around 1000 J/kg. 0-6 KM Bulk Shear is minimal, generally around 25 kt, but up to 40 kt across far northern New Jersey. Finally, PWATs are from 1.5- 2.0 inches. Thunderstorms moving into the unstable airmass, especially across the southern half of the forecast area, will become strong to severe, with damaging winds and heavy rain the most likely impacts.

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Slight risk today.

From the Mount Holly AFD this morning-

With sufficient CAPE and fairly strong shear expected (30-40 kt 0-6 km bulk wind difference) along with alarmingly high values of storm- relative helicity (150+ J/kg), I am concerned storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts and possibly a couple of tornadoes. As alluded to, the threat is conditional on the degree of instability that develops, but the tropical nature of the vertical profiles suggests to me that CAPE will need not be that large to promote an environment favorable for organized/rotating storms. SPC maintains a slight risk of severe storms today across the entire region, and this seems reasonable to me.

 

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6 hours ago, yoda said:

MRGL risk tomorrow for wind... SLGT risk for Thursday

     FWIW, the NAM nest soundings look way better for Wednesday, both in terms of shear and instability, and the simulated radar isn't bad.    HRRR looks pretty good too, and all of the CAMs suggest storms scattered through the area late Wednesday.     If I wanted to go into weenie mode, I'd note some low-level curvature in the hodographs.....

     Thursday has a better shortwave.     For now, the Thursday soundings in the NAM nest lack instability, but deep-layer shear is there, and the event certainly has potential too.    But I'm intrigued by what I'm seeing for the first event and would suggest that we could get a day 2 SLGT for Wednesday in the early afternoon SPC update.

 

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