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2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread


Kmlwx
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53 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

This watch definitely isn’t warranted for most of the area. Big time bust on that enhanced risk today

Figured as much.  We get about two ENH a year and this is our second.

All they'd have to do is move MD down to the gulf, Laura would fall apart faster than a Harbor Freight vacuum cleaner! :)

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Looks like there may be a bow line segment hooking gradually southeast with the classic backbuilding over my area. Then rounds of storms more widespread in coverage throughout the overnight hours with a better chance for severe weather tomorrow, as the SPC highlighted a SLGT risk over much of the region. :weenie:

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8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

At the risk of sounding optimistic, it should be noted that a subtle boundary was laid down across Frederick, Carroll, and Baltimore counties last night by the convection that drifted out of PA. It could lead to a quick spark of the convection coming out of PA.

thats good, cause i didn't get shit out of that when it came south, so if i can get something from its leftover boundary, that'd be cool.

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1630 disco

...OH to Mid-Atlantic States...
   Ongoing convective clusters across eastern OH into western PA will
   have the potential to intensify as one or more of them shifts east
   of the Appalachians later this afternoon. Boundary-layer
   destabilization is becoming increasingly pronounced east of the
   Appalachians and some CAMs suggest a leading cluster could
   accelerate it spreads towards the Mid-Atlantic coast. This renders
   confidence in increasing the severe risk to cat 2/SLGT here.
   Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms with some congealing into
   multicell clusters are likely across the Upper OH Valley. Scattered
   damaging winds will be the primary hazard across all regions.

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19 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Wouldn't be surprised if they didn't upgrade the whole region to a SLGT, low level lapse rates are getting pretty decent and better ML lapse rates are moving in from the west. Sufficient shear for more organized clusters as well.

Nailed it

1 minute ago, high risk said:

not much to add.     The CAMs really ramped up this morning

HDRPS is a weenie run for later this afternoon and evening with multiple rounds possible overnight

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