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2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread


Kmlwx
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Thanks, I lucked out that night. Crazy how many power flashes there were, most of them caused the power to go out for a few min at the pier I was at...that unnatural blue light always feels ominous.

The cam is an old Droid Turbo, it has a decent 4K CMOS camera, pretty water-resistant...unfortunately it creates rolling shutter distortion with lightning. I've used it for 7 years & it's held up, but the battery is going bad, it actually powered-off during that storm & corrupted about 90% of the raw video! Luckily I was able to have it repaired.

I need to upgrade before next spring, something that can film lightning without distorting it so much.

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2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Seems to be some shear today. Some good wind gusts up in Timonium, actually makes it feel bearable out here 

    actually, the deep layer shear needed for an organized severe threat is overall lacking today, which explains the lack of a slight risk.      that said, I do think we'll see a few isolated severe warnings later today.

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21 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Seems to be some shear today. Some good wind gusts up in Timonium, actually makes it feel bearable out here 

Important to remember that surface wind doesn't necessarily indicate what's going on higher up...and vice versa I suppose ;)

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5 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

SPC and the GFS seem to like Sunday afternoon. It looks like the best threat/parameters may reside to our north, but we are at least close enough to monitor now. 

HM spoke about this potential yesterday.

 

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10 minutes ago, southmdwatcher said:

I apologize I usually look into events, is Sunday a potential severe weather outbreak that.can produce tornadoes and hail greater than we are accustomed to? I saw SPC write up that said the focus should go PA and northward.

 

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The trend has definitely been to continue favoring north of us for Sunday's potential severe event. Marginal risk from SPC - but honestly...you can even see in their map and discussion how the threat is north of us. Not sure we'll get a win on this one. 

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The latest NAM sort of peaks our instability too early in the day on Sunday. It has a swath of good CAPE over the area around 12z before it shifts north and east of the area. We still have instability of course, but it demonstrates that the best alignment of parameters is likely (at least for now) to be to the north and east. This is what SPC is showing in the area outlined in the marginal risk. HM on Twitter (posted above) indicated VA northward - but I'd be a lot more cautious about including the DC area in that right now. 

I think it could yield some interesting storms - but any "significant severe" risk is likely to not be in our backyards. Mappy is well positioned I suppose. Of course, caveats apply like it being the NAM at range - and it's just now coming into view of the NAM nest. However, GFS has shown similar solutions. 

Was hoping for a sneaky event to slide in while we all watch Isaias. 

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2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Sneaky sneaky - Slight risk posted for areas from DC and to the west for tomorrow. 

      I have to admit that I wasn't paying close attention to tomorrow, but the HRRR and the Hi-Res Windows all some some impressive cells across northern VA later Saturday.    Wind profiles have some definite directional shear, although there is probably too much weakness in the speeds in the lower levels to have a robust TOR threat.      Slight risk seems completely justified to me.

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

      I have to admit that I wasn't paying close attention to tomorrow, but the HRRR and the Hi-Res Windows all some some impressive cells across northern VA later Saturday.    Wind profiles have some definite directional shear, although there is probably too much weakness in the speeds in the lower levels to have a robust TOR threat.      Slight risk seems completely justified to me.

So much attention being given to Isaias that it was beginning to look like I was talking to myself in here ;) - Even @yoda was gone!

What do you think for Sunday? 

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7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

So much attention being given to Isaias that it was beginning to look like I was talking to myself in here ;) - Even @yoda was gone!

What do you think for Sunday? 

        I'm not writing it off, but I'm not very excited right now.     Far more interested in a potential PRE on Monday.

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new day 1 graphic with disco... 2/5/15

VA_swody1.png

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 AM CDT Sat Aug 01 2020

   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong thunderstorms are possible later today from parts of the Ohio
   and Tennessee Valleys to the Mid Atlantic. The primary threat is
   damaging wind gusts. A few gusty storms may also be noted across the
   southern Rockies.

   ...OH/TN Valley to Mid Atlantic...

   Large-scale height fields are not expected to change appreciably
   during the day1 period; although, a short-wave trough will advance
   slowly east across the OH/TN Valley period during the over night
   hours. In advance of the short wave, a weak surface low is forecast
   to track along the OH River from western KY into southwest OH by
   early evening. This feature will aid low-level convergence necessary
   for potentially robust convection. Latest model guidance suggests
   30-35kt of 500mb flow will translate across middle TN into WV by
   peak heating. 850mb flow is also expected to increase along this
   corridor which will enhance wind profiles for potential storm
   organization. Models are not too aggressive destabilizing this
   region but some surface heating is expected south of a weak warm
   front as it advances north, ultimately draping itself across central
   OH-northern WV-northern VA by 02/00z. This warm-frontal corridor may
   locally enhance the prospect for a few supercells, and perhaps one
   or two tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging winds could accompany
   scattered thunderstorms that develop across this region. Convective
   temperatures should be breached fairly early (between 17-19z) and
   subsequent storm mergers and multi-cell clusters appear possible, in
   addition to a few supercells.

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Since Day 2 (Sunday) looks meh... here's Day 3 (Monday)

VA_swody3.png

 

  ...Portions of the Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic...
   A belt of moderate southwesterly flow is forecast to remain in place
   from parts of the Appalachians to the Mid Atlantic through the
   period. As rich low-level moisture streams back into the region in
   advance of T.C. Isaias, moderate instability may redevelop by
   afternoon prior to the development of increasingly widespread
   convection by Monday afternoon/evening. Effective shear of 25-40 kt
   will support the potential for some organized convection, with a
   threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps a tornado or two. 

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